Oregon spent the opening stretch of the season looking like a national title machine. The Ducks built one of the priciest rosters in college football, and Dante Moore passed on a chance to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick so he could come back for another run at the College Football Playoff.
Now, less than two months later, that picture has completely flipped.
After a 17-15 loss to No. 21 UCLA, Oregon has a strong argument as the most disappointing team in the country. The Ducks’ margin for error is gone, and the path forward is suddenly razor thin.
The game itself was a mess from the start and only got worse. Backup quarterback Dylan Raiola, who had sparked Oregon in the Week 4 win at USC, was 6-of-19 for 43 yards with two interceptions before being benched in the second half.
The ground game never got going either, with Oregon averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. The Ducks managed only one conversion on 12 third-down tries and coughed the ball up seven times.
Even with all of that, Oregon still had a shot to force overtime. After a facemask penalty on UCLA, the Ducks got the ball with a chance to tie on a two-point conversion with just over two minutes left.
They needed one yard. Instead, Oregon’s offensive line got driven backward and Jordon Davison was stopped for no gain.
That ending fit the whole afternoon.
Raiola’s rough night was especially jarring because the setup had looked so promising. Moore was out with a concussion, but Oregon still had what looked, on paper, like the best backup quarterback in the nation.
Raiola had looked sharp against USC, completing 75% of his passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns in just over two quarters. With an open date to prepare for UCLA, the Ducks had every reason to feel good about the position.
Instead, the same issues that haunted Raiola at Nebraska showed up again. He was loose with the football, forced too much on several snaps and finished with two interceptions and a fumble while completing less than 33% of his throws.
Dan Lanning now has to answer for how an experienced quarterback looked so unready in his own stadium.
There’s at least one immediate benefit for Oregon: when Moore returns, the quarterback conversation should settle down. The Ducks are hoping that happens next week. If Moore is still unavailable, though, Lanning may have to turn to Brock Thomas, a senior and former three-star recruit.
The bigger question is whether the season can still be salvaged at all.
Nobody expected Oregon to be sitting at 3-2 on Oct. 10.
With the talent on this roster, losses to Oklahoma State and UCLA were not on the radar before Week 1. But that’s where the Ducks are, and if they want any shot at the College Football Playoff, they now have to run the table the rest of the way.
That means seven straight wins, starting with Nebraska next week. The Cornhuskers are coming off a crushing loss of their own, and Oregon follows that with games against Northwestern and Illinois - matchups the Ducks should win even if they’re not playing their best.
Here’s what remains on the schedule:
Oct. 17: vs. Nebraska
Oct. 24: at Illinois
Oct. 31: vs. Northwestern
Nov. 7: at Ohio State
Nov. 14: vs. Michigan
Nov. 20: Michigan State
Nov. 28: vs. Washington
If Moore gets healthy and looks like himself again, Oregon still has enough talent to overpower most of those opponents. Michigan has struggled to move the ball, and Washington is 3-3 after being hammered by Iowa.
That leaves the Nov. 7 trip to Ohio State as the hinge point. Right now, Oregon has shown nothing that suggests it can go into Columbus and beat the Buckeyes.
But the talent is there. At least in theory.
In Other News...
Ryan Day Revealed Ohio State's Bigger Concern After Maryland Win
Ohio States win over Maryland came with a heavier dose of adversity than the final score suggested, as the Buckeyes were down five starters and two reserve players because of injuries and illness. Starting offensive tackle Austin Siereveld was scratched after an illness surfaced just hours before kickoff, and Phillip Daniels was also held out because he was not ready to play, forcing Ohio State to shuffle on the fly in a game where depth mattered more than usual.
Ryan Day pointed to the mix of penalties and availability issues as part of the larger concern, even with the victory in hand. The Buckeyes are also hoping to get some injured players back next week, which makes the immediate injury picture just as important as anything that happened against Maryland. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Got Snubbed Before A Huge Top 10 Road Test
Ohio State heads to Bloomington for a top-10 road test against Indiana, but the Buckeyes wont be getting the full College GameDay treatment for it. ESPNs pregame show chose BYU vs. Notre Dame in Provo instead, leaving one of the weekends marquee Big Ten matchups without the extra spotlight that usually comes with a clash this big.
Its the kind of decision that stings a fan base used to being in the center of the national conversation, especially with the Buckeyes entering a stretch where every ranked opponent matters. And with GameDay already heading elsewhere this week, Ohio State supporters may be left wondering whether theyll get another chance to host the crew before the season is over. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Got The Wake-Up Call Ryan Day Can Actually Use
Ryan Day had a useful decision in Maryland: he sat most of his starters and let the backups take real game snaps, the kind of reps that can only help a team that already knows it has a higher ceiling. Ohio State still handled the Terrapins 45-16, but the win came with enough messiness to feel instructive rather than purely routine.
The pass protection was shaky at times, turnovers popped up and the penalties piled up, giving the coaching staff a clear list of fixes before Indiana arrives next. For a team that has spent the season aiming higher, this kind of sloppy stretch can be annoying, but it also gives Day and his assistants something concrete to correct before the next step in the schedule. [Read more 🡒]