ESPN’s Football Power Index wasted no time tearing up its preseason College Football Playoff board.
After one Saturday, the computer has Texas on top of the new 12-team projection, with Miami right behind it. Ohio State, which opened the season as the favorite to win it all, has slid to third after the model ran 20,000 simulations on Sunday and recalculated the field.
The rest of the projected bracket, if the season ended today, would run through Notre Dame, Georgia, Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Alabama, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Oklahoma.
Week 1 was enough to shake the board. Texas rolled past Texas State 59-7 and moved ahead of the Buckeyes in the FPI rankings, even though Ohio State also won big. The model still liked Texas’ remaining path more than Ohio State’s.
Miami jumped into second after Week 1, while LSU’s 51-10 opener helped push the Tigers into the seven spot. Indiana stayed sixth, and Notre Dame held fourth without even taking the field, thanks to its résumé and rating.
The Irish did not need a game to stay in the mix, and the computer clearly had no problem keeping them near the top.
The early movement also showed which wins the model respected and which ones it did not. Oregon escaped Boise State, but lost ground.
Michigan survived Western Michigan 13-12, and that narrow escape cost the Wolverines even more. In the updated FPI dump, Michigan is sitting around 20, well outside the projected 12-team field.
That is the point of the exercise: a win is a win on the scoreboard, but not every win looks the same to a simulator.
LSU’s blowout of Clemson is a big reason Lane Kiffin’s team is sitting in the seven hole in this mock. Texas Tech and Oklahoma kept Big 12 spots in the projection, while Alabama landed ninth, a sign the Tide still have plenty of work to do.
ESPN will run the numbers again after Ohio State goes to Austin next week, and that matchup is the first real stress test for the new No. 1.
Joel Klatt has already called the CFP calendar stupid, with 50 days from Selection Sunday to the title game in Las Vegas. The FPI does not care about that.
It only cares about what the remaining schedule and the 12 available tickets say right now.
College football got its first early bracket argument of the season, and the computer handed out a fresh one: Texas at the top, Ohio State waiting in the wings.
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