Texas and Oklahoma meet again at the Cotton Bowl with plenty riding on a game that always seems to carry extra weight. This time, though, the stakes are split very differently: Texas is trying to protect its No. 1 ranking and unbeaten start, while Oklahoma is fighting just to keep its season from slipping below .500.
On paper, Texas has the cleaner résumé. The Longhorns are 4-0 with wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, and they come in off a bye.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 2-2 and has dropped back-to-back games against Michigan and Georgia, scoring just 23 combined points in those losses. Still, rivalry games have a way of ignoring the neatest arguments.
Texas was in a tricky spot a year ago and still knocked off an unbeaten Oklahoma team, and the Longhorns have now won the last two meetings, including a 23-6 result last season.
The bye week could matter, especially with Texas getting a little healthier. Running back Hollywood Smothers and nickel Xavier Filsaime are both off the injury report, which gives Steve Sarkisian more options heading into one of the biggest games on the schedule.
The matchup that stands out most is Texas’ defense against Oklahoma’s offense. The Longhorns made life miserable for Tennessee, allowing only 221 total yards while piling up 10 sacks and 12 tackles for loss.
That kind of pressure can wreck an offense, and it could be especially punishing against an Oklahoma line that already has issues. Tackle Michael Fasusi was initially listed as doubtful, while guard Eddy Pierre-Louis was listed as questionable.
Oklahoma’s offense has been the main culprit in its rough start. The Sooners coughed it up four times in the 41-13 loss to Georgia, including a John Mateer fumble that was returned for a touchdown. If Texas can get to the quarterback without loading up on blitzes, Mateer may spend a lot of the afternoon trying to escape damage rather than create plays.
That said, Oklahoma still has a defense that can make this interesting. It remains a top-five unit nationally, and its front has enough talent to force Texas into some tough snaps. The bigger question is whether the Sooners can hold up long enough against a Texas rushing attack that ranks only 88th nationally.
Steve Sarkisian has made it clear the run game matters here, and the numbers back that up. In the last 20 meetings, the team that won the rushing battle took 18 of them.
Texas has also controlled the ground in its recent wins in the series, which is a major reason the Longhorns have an edge even if Arch Manning doesn’t have to put up a huge stat line. Manning just needs to stay away from turnovers, take what’s there, and punish Oklahoma when pressure opens things up.
DraftKings lists Texas as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 39.5.
The rivalry should keep things tight early, but Texas has too many advantages in the trenches and too much defensive firepower for Oklahoma’s offense to overcome. The Big Lead’s pick is Texas 27, Oklahoma 13. That means Texas covers, and the over also hits.
Pick: Texas -7.5. Oklahoma’s defensive front should keep the Sooners within striking distance for a while, but Texas eventually pulls away with field position, its own defensive pressure, and a far more reliable offense.
In Other News...
Former Ohio State Coach Brian Hartline Just Took A Brutal First Step Back
Brian Hartlines first months at South Florida had gone smoothly enough, with the former Ohio State offensive coordinator off to a 4-1 start before a stumble at UTSA snapped the momentum. The trip also came with a side note that got plenty of attention, after Hartline made comments about the noise inside the opponents stadium and then had those remarks revisited in a very public way once the game was over.
From Ohio States perspective, Hartlines next chapter is still part of the larger coaching tree story, but the Buckeyes have their own issues to sort out as the schedule rolls on. The offense has had trouble getting the rushing game where it needs to be, and while Hartline is now trying to settle in as a head coach, his rough first step back served as another reminder that the margins get small fast once conference and nonconference tests start to pile up. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Elite Passing Game Is Hiding A Bigger Running Back Issue
Ohio States passing game has been humming along at a level few teams in the country can match, but the ground game is carrying a very different kind of conversation. The Buckeyes sit 81st in rushing yards per attempt, a ranking that stands out for a team with this much offensive firepower and one that has had to lean on a rotating backfield rather than finding a clear weekly answer.
The workload has bounced among Ja'Kobi Jackson, Bo Jackson and Isaiah West, with true freshman Legend Bey also part of the early mix. Beys limited role has drawn attention because of questions around why his touches have thinned out, and while there has been speculation about professionalism concerns, nothing has been officially confirmed. For a team built to pressure defenses in every way, the bigger issue may be less about who is getting the carries and more about whether Ohio State has settled on the right one. [Read more 🡒]
Maryland Brings Coaching Drama And A Defense Ohio State Can Exploit
Maryland arrives with plenty of noise around the program, and not much of it has anything to do with what happens between the lines. The uncertainty around Mike Locksleys future has hung over the Terps for a while now, with the athletic director potentially waiting until after the bye week to make a call, and that backdrop only adds to the sense that Ohio State is catching Maryland at a tense moment. At the same time, the offensive side has slipped, with Malik Washingtons play trending down and the Terps searching for steadier footing.
There is still enough on the defensive front to make Maryland worth studying, especially along the line, where a few key pieces can flash and disrupt a game if the rest of the unit holds together. The problem, as Michael Howes pointed out, is that the tackling has not been dependable enough, and those misses have repeatedly undercut the defense. For Ohio State, that creates a familiar sort of opportunity, one that starts with pressure up front and can quickly turn into a longer afternoon for a defense already carrying too much uncertainty. [Read more 🡒]