Tuesday night delivered a dose of high-stakes drama in the Big Ten - and with it, a ripple effect in the NCAA Tournament seeding picture. Two overtime thrillers reshaped the No. 2 seed line in the latest CBS Sports Bracketology projections, with Purdue climbing and Illinois slipping after results that were anything but routine.
Let’s start with Purdue. The Boilermakers went into Lincoln and escaped with an 80-77 overtime win over Nebraska - but not without a serious scare.
They built a commanding 22-point second-half lead, only to watch it evaporate before gutting out the win in extra time. It wasn’t pretty, but it was gritty.
And more importantly, it was Purdue’s seventh Quad 1 victory of the season - a key metric when it comes to seeding in March.
That win bumped Purdue from a No. 3 seed to a No. 2 in the latest bracket projection, and it’s easy to see why. At 20-4 overall and 10-3 in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have already built a strong resume - and they’ve still got more chances to add to it.
Six of their final seven regular-season games are against teams currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament. That means even if they take a couple more hits, they’ll likely be Quad 1 or Quad 2 losses - the kind that don’t sting as badly on Selection Sunday.
Purdue may not be quite in the conversation for a No. 1 seed just yet, but they’re also not far off. And given how tough their remaining schedule is, they’ve got the kind of résumé floor that makes them a tough team to knock too far down the bracket.
As for Nebraska, the Cornhuskers nearly pulled off a signature comeback win that could’ve vaulted them into No. 2 seed territory themselves. But even with the loss, they weren’t hit too hard in the bracket projection - holding steady as a No. 3 seed. That tells you how much respect they’ve earned this season, and how close they are to breaking through to that next tier.
Meanwhile, Illinois finds itself heading in the opposite direction - at least for now. The Illini dropped a heartbreaker at home, falling 92-90 in overtime to Wisconsin. It was their second straight overtime loss, and while both defeats came by razor-thin margins, they’ve taken a toll on Illinois’ seeding outlook.
The Illini dropped from a No. 2 seed to a No. 3, and while that might seem like a harsh penalty for two narrow losses, it reflects how tight the margins are at the top. Still, Illinois is 20-5 overall, 11-3 in the Big Ten, and remains No. 6 in the KenPom rankings - a sign that the underlying metrics still love this team.
Their No. 9 ranking in Wins Above Bubble (WAB) suggests a résumé closer to a 3-seed than a 2-seed at the moment, but the model still projects them to climb back to that No. 2 line by Selection Sunday. The road’s still open - they just need to close a few more of these tight games.
Shifting over to the Atlantic 10, George Mason’s at-large hopes took a hit Tuesday night after an 82-70 loss at Richmond - a Quad 3 setback that stings. The Patriots had been flirting with the bubble thanks to a top-50 résumé, but now sit at 3-3 over their last six games and are trending in the wrong direction. Their margin for error just got a whole lot thinner.
That said, the A-10 isn’t out of the multi-bid picture just yet. VCU, sitting at 18-6 overall and 9-2 in conference play, heads into its Wednesday matchup at La Salle as one of the “First Four Out.” The Rams are very much in the mix, and if they can string together a strong finish, they could join Saint Louis in the field.
Speaking of Saint Louis - the Billikens are the A-10’s crown jewel right now. At 23-1 overall and a perfect 11-0 in conference, they’re locked into at-large territory.
But here’s where things could get interesting: if a team like VCU or George Mason gets hot and steals the conference tournament, the A-10 could find itself with two bids. That’s a scenario the league hasn’t seen often in recent years, but it’s very much on the table this season.
Bottom line? Tuesday night reminded us how quickly things can shift in college basketball.
A couple of overtime games in the Big Ten reshuffled the top of the bracket, and the A-10’s bubble teams are walking a tightrope. With just a few weeks left until Selection Sunday, every possession, every result, and every résumé bullet point matters.
Buckle up - the madness is already starting.