Oregon is starting 2026 in a familiar spot: right in the national title conversation, but still a step behind the teams sitting at the very top of ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index.
The Ducks check in at No. 4 in the early FPI release, behind Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame. ESPN describes the metric as a way to measure team strength and forecast what happens next, with projections built from 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season, current results and the remaining schedule.
For Dan Lanning’s group, the numbers are strong across the board. Oregon is projected for 10.2 wins and 2.3 losses, with an 8.5 percent shot to run the table and a 9.8 percent chance to win the national championship. The Ducks also carry a 64.7 percent chance of reaching the College Football Playoff and a 24.2 percent chance of winning the Big Ten.
The team Oregon is chasing most closely is Ohio State. The Buckeyes hold the No. 1 spot after falling in the CFP quarterfinal last season, and they return starting quarterback Julian Sayin, a 2025 Heisman Trophy finalist, along with receiver Jeremiah Smith. Oregon’s trip to Columbus in 2026 looms large for both teams and figures to carry major weight in the FPI picture.
Indiana sits just ahead of Oregon in the broader Big Ten pecking order, but not in the preseason FPI. The Hoosiers are No. 6 after winning their first National Championship and beating Oregon in the semifinals. They also lost Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza to the NFL, along with other key pieces.
The rest of the conference’s top tier is spread out behind the Ducks. USC is No.
13, Michigan is No. 15, Penn State is No. 17 and Iowa rounds out the Big Ten’s top-25 presence at No.
Oregon’s schedule includes only three games against teams ranked in the preseason top 25 by FPI, a setup that could make it harder to climb all the way to No. 1 in the model - and in the AP top 25 - unless the Ducks go unbeaten. A win over Ohio State would send Oregon soaring in the rankings, while a loss to a lower-ranked opponent would drag them down quickly. Matchups with Michigan, USC and Ohio State will be especially important for both playoff positioning and Oregon’s standing against elite competition.
There is at least one encouraging sign for the Ducks: they opened this preseason two spots higher than they did a year ago, when they were No. 6 in FPI championship odds. Lanning’s team moved up as last season unfolded before a loss to Indiana sent them tumbling in the rankings.
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