Ohio State is headed into the bye week sitting at 6-1 and No. 3 in the country after taking down Indiana, but the biggest storyline now is the one under center. Ryan Day said this week that Julian Sayin is out indefinitely, and the Buckeyes are preparing as if he won’t be back this season.
That leaves Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair to run the offense the rest of the way, with Fahey the frontrunner, and those five remaining games will shape Ohio State’s playoff path.
When you stack them up from easiest to hardest, the final stretch starts with a game that could be trickier than it looks: Northwestern on Nov. 14.
The Wildcats are 5-1 and ranked No. 24, with Chip Kelly calling plays as offensive coordinator and Aidan Chiles giving them efficient quarterback play. They’ve been tough in close games, and they’ll be battle tested after trips to Oregon and a home date with Iowa right before coming to Columbus.
Still, this is the Buckeyes at home, and Ohio State’s defense has kept its last three opponents in check. Northwestern hasn’t shown the kind of explosive weapons that have burned Ohio State before, which is why this lands at No.
Nebraska comes next on Nov. 21, and this is another one that deserves more respect than the record might suggest. The Cornhuskers are 5-2, and both losses were by three points - 20-17 to Indiana and 17-14 at Oregon.
They were 5-0 for the first time since 2016, and the fact that they’ve dropped two games to top Big Ten teams by a combined six points says plenty about how competitive they’ve been. The catch for Ohio State is the setting: Lincoln in late November is no bargain for a young quarterback.
Even so, by then Ohio State’s new starter should have three starts behind him, and the Buckeyes’ defense should be able to keep control of the game.
Oregon checks in at No. 3 on Nov. 7, and on paper this is still the most dangerous team left on the schedule. The Ducks were picked second in the Big Ten preseason media poll and still have the talent to beat anybody.
But the version of Oregon that showed up this week doesn’t look like the one that won the conference two years ago. They’re 4-3, unranked in the AP poll, and coming off a 21-10 loss at Illinois while missing most of their wide receiver room because of injuries and arrests, along with starting quarterback Dante Moore.
The good news for Ohio State is that this one is in Ohio Stadium. Oregon may be healthier by then, but that still beats making the trip to Los Angeles with a freshman quarterback.
Then there’s Michigan on Nov. 28, which lands at No. 2 for one simple reason: it’s Michigan. The Wolverines are 4-3 and 1-3 in the Big Ten in Kyle Whittingham’s first season, so the record alone doesn’t make them look like the second-toughest opponent.
But The Game never plays by normal rules. Ohio State snapped a four-game losing streak to Michigan last season, and that only adds another layer to what comes next.
The records won’t matter much by the time the teams kick off on the final Saturday in November. The atmosphere gets tighter, the defense gets meaner, and every mistake carries extra weight.
For a freshman quarterback, even playing at home, it’s the most intense environment he’ll face.
At the top is USC on Oct. 31, and that’s the toughest one by a clear margin. The Trojans are 6-2 and have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten, even after losing 24-7 at Wisconsin.
The situation around this game is what makes it brutal: this will likely be Fahey’s first career start, as a true freshman, across the country, at night on Halloween in the Coliseum. Ohio State hasn’t played at USC since 2008.
That’s a rough debut any way you slice it, and it gets even tougher when you factor in an offense that can score quickly enough to force Ohio State into chasing the game. The Buckeyes opened as 6.5-point favorites, but this feels like the one most likely to turn against them.
So what does Ohio State need to reach the playoff? Go 4-1 the rest of the way and finish 10-2, and the Buckeyes should get in without much drama.
They already own a top-five road win over the defending champions, and their only loss came at Texas. The committee would also understand that Ohio State lost its quarterback in the middle of the season, which should buy some room.
At 9-3, though, it gets a lot murkier. The Buckeyes would then need help from the rest of the sport and would no longer control their own destiny.
In Other News...
Ohio States Bye Week Boost Comes With A Serious New Concern
BYUs double-overtime loss to UCF shook up the AP Top 25 and opened the door for some movement near the top, but Ohio States bigger concern has little to do with the rankings. The Buckeyes are coming out of the bye week with questions attached to two key pieces of the offense, as injuries to quarterback Julian Sayin and running back JaKobi Jackson threaten to affect how much the team can lean on its usual rhythm.
Miami stayed at No. 1 after handling Pitt, while Ohio State is left sorting through the more immediate reality of how it will look in the games ahead. The Buckeyes have had enough stability to stay in the national conversation, but the timing of these injuries adds a real layer of uncertainty at a point in the season when every week starts to feel more consequential. [Read more 🡒]
BYU Faces A Complicated Ranking Drop After Costly Upset
Miami held onto the No. 1 spot in the AP college football rankings after a convincing win over Pittsburgh, with quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Malachi Toney leading the way. The bigger shift, at least for the teams chasing the top, came from BYUs upset loss to unranked UCF in double overtime, a result that is expected to send the Cougars sliding after they had been sitting at No. 2.
For Ohio State, the ripple effect could be significant. The Buckeyes are projected to move up to No. 2 as pollsters reshuffle the upper tier after a chaotic weekend, with several top teams now under closer scrutiny depending on how they handled their latest tests. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Faces A Season-Defining Test After Julian Sayin Injury
Julian Sayins injury has forced Ohio State into a different kind of stretch run, one that now hinges on how the Buckeyes handle a sudden change at quarterback. Luke Fahey is stepping in, and with the bye week arriving at a key moment, the staff has a little time to stabilize the offense and keep the season on track while the rest of the roster tries to carry the load.
There is still a path here for Ohio State to finish strong, make the College Football Playoff and stay in the national title conversation, but the margin for error is tighter now. The bigger picture also leaves room for long-term optimism, from Jeremiah Smiths Heisman-level ceiling to the idea that Sayin could eventually reclaim the job down the road, even if this season has already taken a sharp turn. [Read more 🡒]