I owe Ohio State fans a bit of an apology.
For months, I spent the offseason warning anyone who would listen that the Buckeyes were heading into one of the nastiest stretches in program history. I was ready for three or four losses. I even wrote that I was excited to be nervous about Ohio State games again for the first time in Woody knows how long.
Now I’m starting to wonder whether I oversold the danger coming from the schedule and underestimated the stress coming from inside the program.
The real anxiety these days has less to do with the teams left on the slate and more to do with Ohio State’s quarterback situation. The opponents that once looked like a brutal gauntlet have turned into something much more manageable.
At the start of the season, the back half of the schedule looked terrifying: defending national champion Indiana, USC, Oregon, Nebraska and Michigan, with Northwestern suddenly looking dangerous too. It sounded like a stretch that could wreck anybody. Instead, the teams that were supposed to be the biggest problems have not exactly lived up to the billing.
USC is 6-2, which is respectable enough, but the Trojans just lost 24-7 to Wisconsin. That’s Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin, the same team that has spent much of the last few seasons looking up at Iowa’s offense with envy.
Oregon came in with national title expectations after the way Dan Lanning was recruiting and the way Phil Knight was spending. The Ducks are now 4-3 after falling 21-10 to Illinois on Saturday, and Ohio State beat that same Illinois team by 23 points.
Oregon also had to scrape by Nebraska 17-14 the week before. Right now, the Ducks look a lot less like a title threat and a lot more like a team that got overhyped because people around the country were tired of seeing Ohio State getting all the attention in the Big Ten.
And then there’s Michigan. The Wolverines are 3-4, though their official record says 4-3, and they’re 1-3 in Big Ten play. They benched their $12 million quarterback bust Bryce Underwood in favor of the former coach’s grandson, and they somehow managed to drag offensive football back a century in a 13-6 overtime loss to Indiana.
That Indiana game matters here, because Ohio State’s 19-15 win over the Hoosiers looked huge at the time. The Buckeyes went into Bloomington and ended Indiana’s 22-game winning streak. It was ugly, but it felt like the kind of result that could say something meaningful about Ohio State’s championship profile.
After seeing Curt Cignetti’s offense put up just six points in regulation against Michigan, though, that win does not look quite as revealing as it did a week ago.
The odd twist in all of this is that Northwestern and Nebraska may actually be the toughest teams left on Ohio State’s regular-season schedule. Northwestern is 6-1 after a 42-14 demolition of Rutgers.
Nebraska is 5-2 and has already given Indiana and Oregon real problems. If someone had told me in August that those would be the two teams I’d be most worried about in November, I would have assumed that TKTKTKTKT
That said, nobody should be printing playoff plans yet. Ohio State still has a quarterback problem hanging over it, and that could matter more than anything the schedule throws at the Buckeyes.
Julian Sayin is out with a significant throwing-arm injury, leaving Ryan Day to choose between Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair.
I’ve already said I think the more athletic but less polished St. Clair deserves a real look, and it sounds like Day and his staff at least took a quick look at him last week. But it does seem like Luke Fahey - a generously 5-foot-11 true freshman - will be the starter when Ohio State heads west this weekend.
The Buckeyes have enough other issues to keep things messy, too. The offensive line has problems.
The running game has issues. The coaching can be maddeningly conservative.
Even a mediocre opponent could make life uncomfortable.
So no, I’m not saying Ohio State is suddenly safe. A team with this many moving parts could still stumble badly against somebody it has no business losing to.
But at 4-0 in conference play, with five regular-season games left, the road ahead does look a lot less frightening than it did back in August.
I said I was excited to be nervous about Ohio State football again. I just figured the nervousness would come from the opponents, not the Buckeyes themselves.
In Other News...
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Quarterback Depth Problem Fans Cant Ignore
Ohio States quarterback room looks a lot different than the one fans expected to see heading into the season, and the ripple effects are hard to ignore. With starter Julian Sayin dealing with an injury, Ryan Day is expected to turn to true freshman Luke Fahey in the backup role, a move that instantly shines a light on just how young and unproven the depth chart has become behind center.
Former coach Urban Meyer has already raised the question many around the program are asking, wondering why five-star prospect Tavien St. Clair is not in position to back up Sayin despite his obvious talent. It is the kind of quarterback situation that can feel manageable in September and suddenly become a real concern if the Buckeyes need answers in a hurry, especially with a room made up mostly of true freshmen, redshirt freshmen and a senior transfer who has limited starting experience. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Stays In The Spotlight As USC Trip Brings Bigger Concern
Ohio State remains squarely in the national conversation after the Week 8 US LBM Coaches Poll placed the Buckeyes at No. 2, just behind Miami and ahead of a reshuffled top five that includes Georgia moving up to No. 3. For a program carrying playoff expectations every week, the ranking is less of a surprise than a reminder of how little margin there is at the top, especially with Oregon sliding out of the mix after a loss.
The bigger immediate issue is the trip to USC, where Ohio State is still waiting on a starting quarterback announcement expected soon. The Buckeyes have plenty of attention coming their way no matter how the poll looks, but the quarterback decision adds another layer to a game that already feels like a test of where this team really stands as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Final Tune Up Brought A Big Reason For Optimism
Ohio States final preseason test in Columbus gave the Buckeyes a useful snapshot of where this roster can go, and a few familiar faces made the evening feel bigger than a typical tune-up. In an 82-73 win over Butler, the Buckeyes got strong contributions from several key players, with Amare Bynum leading the way with 23 points while John Mobley Jr., LJ Smith and Justin Pippen all played important roles in the buildup to the regular season.
The night also carried a healthy dose of program history. Jon Diebler was back around the team, and former head coach Thad Matta was honored at halftime, adding some extra weight to an exhibition that already felt like more than just a warmup. For Ohio State, the performance offered reasons to feel encouraged, even if the bigger questions about how this group will mesh are still waiting to be answered when the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]