Ohio State’s path through the rest of the regular season still looks manageable, even with a freshman backup quarterback now in the mix.
That’s the read from ESPN’s FPI entering Week 9, which projects the Buckeyes to keep rolling after a 6-1 start and a 4-0 mark in Big Ten play. The model sees Ohio State finishing 11-1 overall and 9-0 in the conference, with the only loss coming in that Week 2 thriller at Texas, a 24-23 defeat in Austin after the Buckeyes blew a double-digit lead on Sept. 12.
The biggest immediate hurdle comes Saturday night at USC, where Ohio State faces a 6-2 Trojans team that still has plenty to play for despite a rough 24-7 loss to No. 25 Wisconsin last Saturday at Camp Randall Stadium. USC’s other loss also came in league play, a 41-27 defeat to Oregon on Sept. 26 in what was the final game for Ducks quarterback Dante Moore to this point because of a concussion.
Ohio State’s own quarterback situation has shifted, too. On Friday night, freshman backup Luke Fahey officially replaced Julian Sayin, two weeks after Sayin was taken out of the eventual 19-15 win because of a shoulder injury in his right throwing arm.
That change could reshape the Buckeyes’ season if Fahey ends up having to carry the offense for an extended stretch. But according to the FPI, the schedule ahead still tilts in Ohio State’s favor.
The model gives the Buckeyes an 86.9 percent chance to beat Oregon next Saturday, assuming Moore remains out. After that comes Northwestern, which is 6-1 overall and 3-1 in the Big Ten and has won four straight.
The Wildcats are in the CFP conversation themselves, though their exact standing could change over the next two weeks with games against Oregon and Iowa coming up. Northwestern already locked up bowl eligibility last Saturday with a 42-14 win over Rutgers in Evanston.
When Northwestern comes to Columbus on Saturday, Nov. 14, ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 88.5 percent chance to win.
The final two regular-season games also lean the Buckeyes’ way, at least by the numbers. Ohio State heads to Lincoln to face Nebraska, then closes at home against Michigan by Thanksgiving weekend. The FPI pegs the Buckeyes at 74.9 percent to beat the Cornhuskers in Memorial Stadium and 91.3 percent to handle Michigan for a second straight win in the rivalry.
So even with a new quarterback taking over, the projection remains simple: Ohio State keeps winning, and the Buckeyes enter the finish line at 11-1.
In Other News...
Ohio States Bigger Problem In Los Angeles Was Never The Freshman QB
Ohio States trip to Los Angeles quickly became less about a true freshman quarterback making his first real imprint and more about a team that kept tripping over its own mistakes. Luke Fahey did enough to keep the offense moving in the first half, completing 8 of 15 passes for 86 yards, and the coaching staff clearly trusted him to handle the job despite his inexperience. But by halftime, USC had built a 20-6 lead, and the bigger issues were showing up everywhere else.
Missed tackles, penalties, special teams problems and defensive miscommunications all helped put Ohio State in a hole before the game could settle in. Fahey was not the reason the Buckeyes were chasing the scoreboard, and the way the first half unfolded made that plain. The more pressing concern for Ohio State was how many different areas were breaking down at once, leaving the freshman quarterback to absorb blame he never really owned. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Than One Road Loss
A road loss in Los Angeles already had Ohio State dealing with the usual fallout from a stumble away from home, but the bigger issue was how USC controlled the game from start to finish. The Trojans held the No. 2 Buckeyes to one touchdown, and Ohio State never found much rhythm with backup quarterback Luke Fahey under constant pressure from a USC defense that stacked up tackles for loss and sacks.
The Buckeyes also had no answer for the explosive play that tilted the night, with Mark Bowman ripping off a 70-yard catch-and-run that helped put USC in position to finish the job. It was a statement win for Lincoln Riley, his first top-five victory with the Trojans, and for Ohio State it leaves a lot more to sort through than just the final score. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Riley Added More Fuel To Ohio States Ugly Night
USCs 30-18 win over Ohio State was already the kind of result that left a mark, but Lincoln Riley added another layer to the night in the aftermath. In his postgame press conference, the Trojans coach leaned into the idea that the satisfaction came from inside the building, not from outside approval, a fitting tone after a victory that sent Ohio State back to Columbus with plenty to sort through.
The scene around the tunnel at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum was less polished. Riley and his family ran into a bottleneck on the way out, and the moment escalated into a verbal exchange in which Riley reportedly directed profanity at Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork and other staff members. Former Buckeye Maurice Clarett stepped in to try to calm things down, a reminder that even after the final whistle, the emotions from a game like this can linger well beyond the field. [Read more 🡒]