Ohio State got a small but meaningful boost in the College Football Playoff picture last weekend, and it had nothing to do with the Buckeyes steamrolling Kent State. The bigger help came from out west, where USC went across the country, stumbled through a rough outing at Rutgers and had to work far harder than expected to finish off a bad Scarlet Knights team.
Now the Trojans are back in the spotlight, and they’re part of a loaded weekend that could start sorting out the playoff field. Ohio State’s own Big Ten opener against Illinois is in that mix too, though the Buckeyes should be walking into a much more manageable test than several of the teams around them.
Texas and Tennessee headline the weekend in the most direct way possible: No. 1 against No. 14, and the first SEC meeting between the two. For Tennessee, this is the real opening bell.
The Vols have looked sharp through three games, especially on offense, but they haven’t beaten a power-conference team with a winning record since they knocked off Alabama in October of 2024. If they pull this one out, they’d be in strong shape to stay unbeaten until Alabama comes to town on the third Saturday in October.
Beat Texas, and the playoff path starts looking wide open, with Tennessee favored the rest of the way, including that late-November home game against LSU.
Texas, though, is staring at one of the toughest schedules in the country from here on out. Six of its final eight games come against ranked teams, and that doesn’t even count the Red River Rivalry. A loss here wouldn’t end the Longhorns’ playoff hopes, but it would crank up the pressure fast in Austin.
Ohio State’s own game against Illinois doesn’t carry that kind of drama. The Buckeyes are opening Big Ten play against a team that has been solid under Brett Bielema, but Illinois also gave up 31 points at home to Duke. That’s not the kind of résumé that suggests it can hang with Ohio State’s offense in the Horseshoe.
One of the weekend’s most interesting playoff pressure points sits in Gainesville, where No. 4 Ole Miss visits No.
21 Florida. The Rebels are coming off an emotional game against Lane Kiffin and LSU, and now they have to regroup quickly against a Florida team under head coach John Summrall that’s trying to make a real statement.
A win for Ole Miss could be the key result that keeps the Rebels in clear playoff position, especially with the top two teams in the country still left on the schedule. A loss, though, would make the path much narrower and probably force them to beat Texas or Georgia.
Florida has plenty at stake too. If the Gators win, they’d suddenly look like a real playoff contender.
Their October schedule includes three teams ranked in the top 20, but November is much more forgiving. Beat Ole Miss, and Florida might only need one more strong result in that October stretch to build a legitimate case.
Another game that could say plenty about a team’s ceiling is No. 17 Iowa against No.
18 Michigan. The loser may end up carrying the bigger story out of this one.
If Iowa wins, the conversation turns to Michigan and whether the Wolverines are actually that good after nearly losing to Western Michigan and beating Oklahoma in a game that mostly said the Sooners’ offense was worse that day. If Michigan wins, the familiar line about Iowa comes right back: solid, steady, but not the kind of team that can take the next step against a quality opponent.
It has the feel of an elimination game even though both teams are unbeaten. The winner can keep talking about the playoff. The loser probably won’t be in that conversation when late November arrives.
No. 23 Texas A&M and No.
10 LSU both enter this week trying to recover from losses, and that makes their matchup especially important. The Aggies’ home loss to Kentucky was a stunner, while LSU just came out of that emotional battle at Ole Miss.
Texas A&M probably needs this one more. Its road back to the playoff would require beating Missouri, Alabama, Tennessee and Texas with little margin left, and that looks like a brutal ask.
LSU still has a tough schedule too, but the Tigers appear to have the talent to manage it better.
Then there’s No. 20 Oregon at No.
12 USC, which feels like the first major Big Ten game of the season. Oregon entered the year with national title expectations, but the Ducks looked shaky in their first two games, especially on defense.
USC, meanwhile, has one of the nation’s best offenses and gets its first real chance to prove this season is different. The Trojans’ buzz took a hit after that uneven trip to Rutgers, but the talent is still there, and this game has the feel of veterans against youth.
Oregon has been in this kind of spot before. Last year, the Ducks started with a sleepwalk against Idaho and a game they probably should have lost to Boise State, then turned around and went 12-0, won the Big Ten and earned the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. They need a response now if they want to keep that same kind of season alive, especially with a trip to Columbus still on the schedule.
USC’s path is just as revealing. After this game, the Trojans still have Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana left.
Win here, and they put themselves in a strong position to survive that stretch. Lose, and the question becomes whether they’re too young or simply not good enough to navigate it.
Rounding out the top-25 matchups, No. 19 Missouri visits No.
24 Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are back in the rankings for the first time since 2023 after road wins at Minnesota and South Carolina, and now they get their first SEC home game against a Missouri team that has spent the last few years as a measuring stick for the conference.
Missouri usually handles the bottom of the league but doesn’t often beat the top.
If Mississippi State wins, it could become a real SEC threat. The Bulldogs’ next two games are against Alabama and LSU, and they still have Texas on the road before the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving. If they lose, those games probably stop mattering much for the playoff picture, because Mississippi State likely won’t be good enough to win them anyway.
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Sayin was especially sharp when the offense let him operate on time and in rhythm, finishing 16 of 19 when kept clean for 223 yards and two scores. The game also offered a useful reminder of how efficiently Ohio State can move the ball when its passing game is in sync, and it gave the staff another data point on the situations that bring out the best in him. [Read more 🡒]