ESPN’s latest computer update still likes Ohio State’s path the rest of the way, even with a new starting quarterback in the mix.
After a wild Week 8 and a Buckeyes bye, the matchup predictor adjusted the numbers for the final stretch of the 2026 regular season. The big picture hasn’t changed much: Ohio State remains favored in every remaining game, with the toughest hurdles still sitting on the road at USC and Nebraska, plus home dates with Oregon and Michigan.
The Buckeyes have already handled the early part of the schedule the way ESPN expected in most spots. They opened with a 56-3 win over Ball State, then beat Kent State 59-3, Illinois 42-19, Iowa 31-14, Maryland 45-16 and Indiana 19-15. The only game where the model leaned the other way was the Sept. 12 trip to Texas, where ESPN had the Longhorns as the pick at 59.9%.
Now the focus shifts to the final five games, where the numbers have mostly moved in Ohio State’s direction.
At USC on Oct. 31, the Buckeyes now have an 82.8% win probability, up from 78.1%. Ohio State will head to Memorial Coliseum with USC holding a 13-10-1 edge in the all-time series.
A week later, Oregon comes to Ohio Stadium, and ESPN gives the Buckeyes an 86.9% chance to win, a jump from 83.8%. Ohio State leads that series 10-2.
The Nov. 14 home game against Northwestern shows a slight dip, with Ohio State’s probability at 88.5%, down from 89.4%. The Buckeyes still hold a 66-14-1 advantage in the series.
The final road test at Nebraska carries a 75.0% Ohio State win probability, up from 74.2%. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 10-1.
And then comes Michigan on Nov. 28 in Columbus, where ESPN lists Ohio State at 91.3%, down a tick from 91.6%. Michigan leads the overall series 62-52-6.
If the predictor plays out the way ESPN sees it, Ohio State would finish 11-1.
In Other News...
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Former coach Urban Meyer has already raised the question many around the program are asking, wondering why five-star prospect Tavien St. Clair is not in position to back up Sayin despite his obvious talent. It is the kind of quarterback situation that can feel manageable in September and suddenly become a real concern if the Buckeyes need answers in a hurry, especially with a room made up mostly of true freshmen, redshirt freshmen and a senior transfer who has limited starting experience. [Read more 🡒]
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The bigger immediate issue is the trip to USC, where Ohio State is still waiting on a starting quarterback announcement expected soon. The Buckeyes have plenty of attention coming their way no matter how the poll looks, but the quarterback decision adds another layer to a game that already feels like a test of where this team really stands as the schedule tightens. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Final Tune Up Brought A Big Reason For Optimism
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The night also carried a healthy dose of program history. Jon Diebler was back around the team, and former head coach Thad Matta was honored at halftime, adding some extra weight to an exhibition that already felt like more than just a warmup. For Ohio State, the performance offered reasons to feel encouraged, even if the bigger questions about how this group will mesh are still waiting to be answered when the games start counting. [Read more 🡒]