Ohio States Playoff Path Already Faces A Big Week 1 Test

As college football kicks off, pivotal matchups like Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin and Louisville vs. Ole Miss provide immediate stakes for the playoff race and set the tone for high expectations across the nation.

Week 1 doesn’t waste much time getting to the games that can shape the College Football Playoff picture.

Week 0 is done, and the season rolls straight into a Labor Day weekend slate that runs from Thursday through Monday night. It may not be as loaded as some opening weeks, but there are still plenty of matchups that matter for No. 1 Ohio State and the teams trying to chase a playoff spot.

Start with Miami, which heads all the way to Northern California to face Stanford in the first meeting between the schools as conference rivals. That 3,105-mile trip is the second-longest possible conference road game in FBS, trailing only Miami’s trip to Cal.

The Hurricanes are 24.5-point favorites on Friday night, and under Mario Cristobal they have too often stumbled against inferior ACC opponents, costing them a shot at the conference title game. That kind of slip is not what is expected here, but it remains something to watch as the season develops.

Ohio State opens its season Saturday afternoon in the Horseshoe against Ball State. For the Buckeyes, the national championship favorite, this is exactly what it looks like: a tune-up before the trip to Texas next weekend. Their schedule is difficult overall, but not in Week 1.

Oregon also opens with a game that could matter more than it first appears. Boise State comes to Eugene in a rematch of sorts from two years ago, when Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos pushed the Ducks hard before Oregon escaped by three points after returning both a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns.

Both teams kept winning after that until the College Football Playoff semifinals. Boise State again looks like the group of six team with the best playoff case, while Oregon remains one of the national title threats.

A tight game would echo through the rest of the season, even if Boise State’s biggest issue is that it does not have a top-ten pick at running back this time.

Texas also starts with a built-in breather, facing Texas State. The Longhorns carry the usual Texas-sized pressure and expectations into the season, but the opener is not where that gets tested. The same basic idea applies to Ohio State’s game with Ball State.

Clemson and LSU bring a much bigger spotlight. These two opened last season against each other in Clemson, both ranked in the top 10, and LSU won while inserting itself into the early national championship conversation.

The story changed fast from there, as Clemson wasn’t very good and LSU wasn’t very good either. Now Clemson begins the year unranked in the AP poll for the first time in 15 years, while LSU is coached by Lane Kiffin and trying to add literal NFL players to the roster.

It is a showcase game for both programs. Clemson can prove it still belongs among the ACC’s best and can battle Miami for the league title.

LSU can show that Lane Kiffin was the right hire. For the Tigers, this is about as close as Week 1 gets to a must-win.

A loss would leave them needing at least three wins against Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Texas without another slip if they want a playoff path. The pick here is LSU.

The Apple Cup still matters, even if it no longer looks the way it once did. Washington State and Washington used to meet at the end of the regular season with conference stakes on the line.

Washington has since moved to the Big Ten, but the annual game remains. The two programs are in very different places now.

Washington State has first-year coach Kyle Moore guiding the program through life in the new PAC-12, while Washington kept Demond Williams Jr. at quarterback as it tries to take another step in the Big Ten. The Huskies need to stack early wins, especially with Indiana and Oregon closing their schedule.

Notre Dame and Wisconsin meet in a game that is technically a “home” game for the Irish, but it will be played at Lambeau Field in Wisconsin. The setting is as fitting as it gets, even if the local crowd will be pulling for the green team to lose.

Beyond the backdrop, this is an important test for both programs. Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell is in a make-or-break year, and the Badgers have invested more in the roster, including adding former Ohio State corner Bryce West.

They need to get back to something closer to Wisconsin football, even if beating Notre Dame is a big ask. The Irish, meanwhile, have a relatively soft schedule.

Wisconsin may end up being the best team they face until a late-October trip to BYU, and if Notre Dame wins here, a 6-0 start looks likely.

The only ranked-on-ranked matchup of the week comes Sunday night in Nashville, where Louisville meets Ole Miss at the home of the Tennessee Titans on the banks of the Cumberland River. Neutral-site nonconference games are fading away, and that is probably for the best, but this one still gives Week 1 some bite.

Former Ohio State quarterback Lincoln Keinholz leads the Cardinals against an Ole Miss team that kept a lot of players from leaving for LSU with Lane Kiffin. Both teams think they can contend in their leagues, and this game should tell us something about how the ACC and SEC stack up in 2026.

SMU closes the weekend with a Labor Day night game against Florida State. The Mustangs open as the second-highest-ranked ACC team, and they have already shown they can get to the league title game after making it in their first year in the conference two years ago, falling a field goal short of a shot at the championship and still reaching the College Football Playoff.

Miami is not on the schedule, but plenty of the next tier in the ACC is. Florida State is expected to be in that group, at least if the Seminoles are going to live up to their history and act like a playoff contender should.

Instead, Mike Norvell enters a make-or-break season after Florida State missed a bowl game in each of the last two years following its undefeated 2023 run. The Seminoles are 7-17 over that stretch, and that has to be unacceptable at a place like Florida State.

This primetime matchup with SMU is their chance to show they belong.

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Now the attention shifts from offseason optimism to September reality, with the opener against Ball State serving as the first chance to show how much of that growth carries onto the field. Sayin already proved he can handle the spotlight once, but Year 2 often brings a different level of scrutiny, and for Ohio State the early signs from its quarterback will matter as much as the final score. [Read more 🡒]

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For St. Clair, the spotlight comes with a bit of pressure. Once viewed as a major quarterback prospect, he enters the opener trying to steady his standing while Fahey has gained momentum in fall camp and pushed himself into the conversation for the future. How Ohio State handles those reps against Ball State should say plenty about where the backup job stands right now, even if the bigger answer for this season is still waiting down the road. [Read more 🡒]