Ohio State’s College Football Playoff picture has gotten a lot murkier, but the Buckeyes still have a path if they can steady themselves over the final three weeks.
That starts Saturday in Columbus against Northwestern, where Ohio State will try to stop a slide that has put it on the outside looking in with less than a month left before the final bracket is revealed on the first Sunday in December. It’s the last year of the 12-team format, the same setup that helped the Buckeyes two seasons ago when they won the national title against Notre Dame.
The timing matters because the margin for error is shrinking fast. With three regular-season games left, including the annual finale known as "The Game," Ohio State may need to finish with nine wins to stay in the at-large conversation. Michigan, coming off last year’s 27-9 win in Ann Arbor, is still part of that equation, and the Buckeyes could be playing with fire if they need that ninth victory to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Still, the numbers haven’t completely closed the door.
The Rooting Guide laid out five Week 11 results Ohio State fans should be watching closely. The list includes UCLA taking its first loss in a Friday-night upset against Illinois, Oregon falling to Michigan, USC beating Indiana in Bloomington to hand the Hoosiers a second loss, and Texas and SMU both winning against LSU and Wake Forest, respectively.
"Each of those upsets would help more than Ohio State’s own expected win," the x post read. "That doesn’t make Northwestern optional: lose, and the model takes away 21.4 points."
ESPN’s FPI also still sees a workable road for the Buckeyes, even after the recent struggles and the questions at quarterback. Ohio State enters the Northwestern game with an 86.3 percent chance to win, then drops to 74.3 percent for next week’s trip to Nebraska, while still being projected to win. The regular-season finale against Michigan carries an 89.3 percent chance to win, leaving Ohio State as a heavy favorite to finish the regular season 9-3 if it can get back on track.
In Other News...
Ohio State Finally Made A Change Fans Saw Coming
Ohio State made the kind of midseason move fans had been expecting after a string of special teams breakdowns kept showing up at the worst possible moments. Robby Discher was fired after nine games, with the Buckeyes issues on that phase of the game becoming harder to ignore as penalties and momentum-swinging mistakes piled up in recent losses.
Ryan Day said there had simply been too many detrimental plays to keep things as they were, and the staff is now reshuffling responsibilities to finish the season. Senior analyst Rob Keys will oversee special teams the rest of the way, with other coaches taking on specific units, a sign that Ohio State is trying to steady one of the most frustrating parts of its operation before it costs them again. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Backup Quarterback Problem Just Got More Complicated
Justyn Martins role at Ohio State has become one of those quiet depth-chart stories that can suddenly matter a lot more than anyone expected. The fifth-year senior has not played this season, but with Julian Sayin sidelined, Martin is now listed as the third-string quarterback, and Ryan Day has already made it clear he likes what he has seen from him in practice. For a team that always has to be ready at quarterback, that kind of behind-the-scenes trust can carry real weight.
Martin has kept working alongside Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, staying in the mix while the Buckeyes sort through their options. He has spoken confidently about the group and noted that Sayin remains supportive during his recovery, which only adds another layer to a situation that is still unfolding. For now, Martin is waiting for a chance that has not come yet, but the fact that Day is even floating game usage suggests Ohio States backup picture is far from settled. [Read more 🡒]
Chip Kelly Is Suddenly Back In Ohio State's Offensive Picture
Chip Kellys name is back in the mix around Ohio State, and not just as a nostalgic footnote. The former Buckeyes assistant, now at Northwestern, has surfaced in conversations about offensive play-caller openings, with his past tie to the program giving the idea immediate credibility. For a staff that is always under the microscope, any movement on the offensive side tends to draw attention quickly, especially when it involves a coach with Kellys rsum and familiarity with the Ohio State environment.
The broader picture is still fluid, though, because Nebraska is also being linked to Kelly and may try to sell him on the stature of the job rather than a simple financial pitch. For Ohio State, the possibility seems tied to whether current staff changes open a path, which is why the chatter feels more like a developing subplot than a settled pursuit. Even so, the fact that Kelly is being discussed in that context says plenty about how quickly the Buckeyes offensive landscape can shift. [Read more 🡒]