Just one week after the first College Football Playoff ranking dropped, the picture has already been shaken up again.
The second official top 25, released Tuesday, November 10, 2026, sent Georgia to No. 1 after Miami’s loss to Notre Dame last Saturday. Ohio State took one of the hardest hits in the poll, sliding from No. 12 to No. 20 after losing to Oregon.
That shift showed up quickly in the prediction markets. With four weeks left before College Football Playoff Selection Day, traders on Polymarket have been moving fast to sort out who looks safe and who suddenly has work to do.
Georgia, Alabama, and Notre Dame are drawing the strongest support in the market, with users treating all three like near-locks for the 12-team field. Utah and Miami are also sitting comfortably above the 80% mark in backing. At the other end, the Buckeyes’ stock has taken a real dive.
A week ago, Ohio State was getting 60% “Yes” support on Polymarket, with a share priced at 62¢. Now, the Buckeyes are down to just 16% backing and 17¢ a share. That’s a steep fall for a team that was still in the thick of the conversation not long ago.
The committee’s latest ranking also comes with a busy Week 11 slate that could keep reshaping the race. There are five top-25 matchups on tap, along with other notable games, including Ohio State’s home date with Northwestern. For the Buckeyes, that one could carry serious weight.
Ohio State’s remaining schedule now reads like this: Northwestern on Nov. 14 at 12:00 p.m., at Nebraska on Nov. 21, and Michigan on Nov. 28 at 12:00 p.m. The good news for the Buckeyes is that all three of those opponents lost last week, which makes the finish line look a little less intimidating. The bad news is that there’s no room left for another slip.
ESPN’s All-State Playoff Predictor has Ohio State at 37% to reach the field of 12. A loss to Northwestern or Michigan would drop that number under 1%. If the Buckeyes lose only to Nebraska, they would need help and then a Big Ten Championship win to stay alive.
There is still a path, though it’s a narrow one. If Ohio State wins its final three games but does not reach the conference championship, ESPN gives the Buckeyes a 56% chance to make the playoff. The odds are ugly, but they are not gone yet.
The current Polymarket board does not list markets for No. 4 UCLA, No.
13 Wake Forest, or No. 24 Boise State.
UCLA remains undefeated, Boise State is the leading Group of 5 team for an automatic bid, and Wake Forest is 8-1 and on track for the ACC Championship with a win this weekend at SMU.
In Other News...
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Receiver Problem Before Northwestern
The quarterback situation already had enough attention heading into Ohio States matchup with Northwestern, with both teams set to be without their starters under center because of injuries. But the Buckeyes may be dealing with a wider offensive shortage than expected, since three of their top six wide receivers are listed as questionable, adding another layer of uncertainty to a game that already looked like it would require some adjustment.
Brandon Inniss, Phillip Bell and Brock Boyd are all in question, while running back JaKobi Jackson and tight end Max LeBlanc remain sidelined. Northwestern is also shorthanded, with eight players out including starting quarterback Aidan Chiles and cornerback Josh Fussell, so this could turn into a game defined less by star power than by which side handles the attrition better and finds enough reliable options to function on offense. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Week 10 Spiral Says Plenty About This Teams Ceiling
Ohio States Week 10 slide has turned into more than a bad stretch, it has become a clear reminder of how thin the margin is when the offense loses its rhythm. With three losses on the books and the Buckeyes trying to navigate life without quarterback Julian Sayin, the conversation around the program has shifted from weekly fixes to bigger questions about how high this team can actually climb in the Big Ten race.
The latest conference pecking order reflects that uncertainty, with Ohio State sitting eighth after Week 10 while other league contenders continue to build momentum around it. For a program that expects to be in the thick of every major postseason discussion, the current spiral says plenty about the ceiling this version of the Buckeyes can reach unless the pieces start coming together soon. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States 2027 Running Back Picture Just Got More Interesting
Ohio States 2027 running back board picked up a notable addition when Daylon Gordon, a four-star prospect from Wylie, Texas, committed to the Buckeyes after previously being pledged to Texas State. Gordon arrives with a Power 4 offer sheet and gives Ohio State another talented name to build around as the class starts to take shape.
Even with Gordon on board, the Buckeyes are not treating the position as settled. They are still pursuing more running backs for the 2027 class, which keeps the room competitive and leaves open the possibility that this group could grow into one of the more interesting pieces of the cycle. [Read more 🡒]