Ohio State’s College Football Playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, but the door isn’t completely shut.
The Buckeyes sit at No. 20 in this week’s rankings, which means they no longer control their own postseason fate. Even if they win out, the most likely result is a non-playoff bowl game - and even that comes with a question mark, since Ohio State would still have to decide whether it wants to play in it.
Still, the numbers say the climb back is not fantasy. Since the CFP began in 2014, 10 teams have started four weeks out ranked 20th or worse and finished Selection Sunday inside the top 12. That list includes Georgia Tech in 2014, North Carolina and Mississippi in 2015, USC in 2016, Washington in 2018, Coastal Carolina in 2020, Utah and Pittsburgh in 2021, Washington again in 2022 and Arizona State in 2024.
But Ohio State’s road is steeper than most of those examples. None of those teams actually earned an at-large playoff spot.
The CFP didn’t expand to 12 teams until 2024, and Arizona State would have gotten in anyway as the Big 12 champion. Only four of the 10 teams finished in the top 11, which is the range Ohio State will likely need to reach to make the field.
Five conference champions are guaranteed spots, and the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, No. 24 Boise State, is still behind the Buckeyes.
The recent climb also usually came with help on the field. Nine of the 10 teams picked up at least one ranked win during the final four weeks before Selection Sunday.
The lone exception was 2015 North Carolina, which finished 11-1. Ohio State won’t have another ranked opponent on its regular-season schedule, with Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan left to play.
There’s another hurdle, too: seven of those 10 teams made it to their conference championship game, and four of them won it. That’s the cleanest path for Ohio State as well. The most realistic route is for the Buckeyes to slip into the Big Ten Championship Game, then win in Indianapolis and claim one of the five automatic berths for conference champions.
That scenario still needs help. If Indiana and USC each lose again - and one of them will take a loss this weekend when they meet - Ohio State projects to win the tiebreaker among two-loss teams in many scenarios.
The closest historical match for what Ohio State needs is USC in 2016. That team moved from No. 20 to No. 9 despite three losses and a 9-3 finish, though it also closed the regular season on an eight-game winning streak and got a major boost from a road win over No. 4 Washington.
For the Buckeyes, though, the first order of business is much simpler: win. Ryan Day made that clear after the latest rankings came out.
“The thing that we need to do is respond with a win this week and then finish the regular season out the right way with three wins,” Ryan Day said. “It's not 100% that we're out of the race here either.
So the guys need to recognize that part of it. But in order for us to go get this win here, we've got to play better football.”
In Other News...
Ohio State Finally Made A Change Fans Saw Coming
Ohio State made the kind of midseason move fans had been expecting after a string of special teams breakdowns kept showing up at the worst possible moments. Robby Discher was fired after nine games, with the Buckeyes issues on that phase of the game becoming harder to ignore as penalties and momentum-swinging mistakes piled up in recent losses.
Ryan Day said there had simply been too many detrimental plays to keep things as they were, and the staff is now reshuffling responsibilities to finish the season. Senior analyst Rob Keys will oversee special teams the rest of the way, with other coaches taking on specific units, a sign that Ohio State is trying to steady one of the most frustrating parts of its operation before it costs them again. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Backup Quarterback Problem Just Got More Complicated
Justyn Martins role at Ohio State has become one of those quiet depth-chart stories that can suddenly matter a lot more than anyone expected. The fifth-year senior has not played this season, but with Julian Sayin sidelined, Martin is now listed as the third-string quarterback, and Ryan Day has already made it clear he likes what he has seen from him in practice. For a team that always has to be ready at quarterback, that kind of behind-the-scenes trust can carry real weight.
Martin has kept working alongside Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, staying in the mix while the Buckeyes sort through their options. He has spoken confidently about the group and noted that Sayin remains supportive during his recovery, which only adds another layer to a situation that is still unfolding. For now, Martin is waiting for a chance that has not come yet, but the fact that Day is even floating game usage suggests Ohio States backup picture is far from settled. [Read more 🡒]
Chip Kelly Is Suddenly Back In Ohio State's Offensive Picture
Chip Kellys name is back in the mix around Ohio State, and not just as a nostalgic footnote. The former Buckeyes assistant, now at Northwestern, has surfaced in conversations about offensive play-caller openings, with his past tie to the program giving the idea immediate credibility. For a staff that is always under the microscope, any movement on the offensive side tends to draw attention quickly, especially when it involves a coach with Kellys rsum and familiarity with the Ohio State environment.
The broader picture is still fluid, though, because Nebraska is also being linked to Kelly and may try to sell him on the stature of the job rather than a simple financial pitch. For Ohio State, the possibility seems tied to whether current staff changes open a path, which is why the chatter feels more like a developing subplot than a settled pursuit. Even so, the fact that Kelly is being discussed in that context says plenty about how quickly the Buckeyes offensive landscape can shift. [Read more 🡒]