Ohio State opens the 2026 season Saturday with Ball State coming to Ohio Stadium, and this one has all the makings of a clean, one-sided September tune-up for the Buckeyes.
The numbers already point hard in Ohio State’s direction. DraftKings lists the Buckeyes as 50.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 56.5.
The game will be played in Columbus at Ohio Stadium - “The Horseshoe” - where Ohio State has not lost a home opener since 1978. The Buckeyes also enter the year ranked No. 1 by The Associated Press after finishing the 2024-2025 season by beating Notre Dame for the national title, even after a one-and-done run in the College Football Playoff last winter and the loss of 11 players to the NFL Draft.
Ryan Day, though, isn’t treating Ball State like a throwaway warmup. In his weekly press conference, he kept the focus on his own team and made clear what he wants to see first.
“We can't have substitution issues. I mean, we're looking for a clean operation.
That's the first thing in game one that you're looking for,” Day said. "And I said it before, great teams don't beat themselves.
That's the first part of it. So, we need to establish that part of them.”
He also made it plain that the Buckeyes want to get the ground game rolling, especially with Bo Jackson and Isaiah West in the mix.
"Yeah, I think it's pretty well documented this offseason,” Day said of the run game. “We have our ability to get to the second level and turn 10-, 12-yard runs into big runs. We've put a lot of work into that.”
That’s the part of this matchup that feels most likely to snowball on Ball State. The Cardinals are coming off a 4-8 season, and they’ve dropped three straight dating back to last year. The program hasn’t beaten a Power 4 opponent since 2013, and its last Big Ten win came against Indiana in 2012.
Ball State did manage a season-high 42 points in an Oct. 18 Homecoming win over Akron last season, but that was its final victory of the year.
The Cardinals also finished 10th in the Mid-American Conference. And if the goal is to find comfort in recent opener history, last year didn’t offer much there either: Purdue shut Ball State out in a 31-point win to start the season.
Ohio State, meanwhile, should have every incentive to come out sharp. A Week 2 road trip to No.
5 Texas is waiting, so this opener is as much about execution as it is about the scoreboard. Even with half of last year’s starters gone, the expectation is that the Buckeyes come out fast and keep the pressure on.
The offense should lean on the run first. A veteran offensive line is expected to create space for Jackson and West, and that should in turn open up Arthur Smith’s play-action game. Even with the rushing attack doing much of the heavy lifting, Jeremiah Smith and newcomer Devin McCuin are both projected to have big days.
On defense, Ohio State is replacing the most from last season’s No. 1 scoring unit, but Matt Patricia has already established the standard. The new starters are expected to announce themselves early, and Ohio State should force 3+ turnovers in the game.
There are still reasons to expect a few rough edges. Minor penalties and some early-season growing pains would not be a surprise, especially with so many new faces trying to settle in. But the Buckeyes should still separate quickly and comfortably, even if 80-plus points is too much to ask and even if they don’t cover the 50.5 spread.
A few younger names are also worth tracking, including true freshman wide receiver Chris Henry Jr., running back Legend Bey and defensive back Jay Timmons. Each is expected to be leaned on during the regular season.
In the end, the safest read is the simplest one: Ohio State should handle Ball State, use the afternoon to clean up the details, and get ready for the much bigger test coming next week.
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