Ohio State heads into the bye week with a very different offensive reality than it expected, and the biggest change is the injury to Julian Sayin. That leaves Arthur Smith facing a new kind of challenge in his first season as offensive coordinator, and it also gives us a clean moment to look back at what the Buckeyes’ offense has actually been through so far.
The headline numbers are strong in a few places and shakier in others. Ohio State is scoring 39.3 points per game, which is tied for 12th nationally and first in the Big Ten.
Its high-water mark was 59 points against Kent State, while its low was 19 against Indiana. The Buckeyes are also averaging 6.95 yards per play, good for 11th in the country and second in the league, with a season-best 9.3 against Ball State and a low of 4.6 against Indiana.
The passing game has been the most explosive part of the offense by a wide margin. Ohio State is averaging 10.7 passing yards per attempt, which ranks first in the country.
That number reached 13.6 against Kent State and dipped to 7.6 against Indiana. The run game has not come close to matching it.
The Buckeyes are averaging four yards per carry, which ranks 99th nationally and 12th in the Big Ten. Their top rushing average came against Ball State at 6.8, and the low was 2.1 against Indiana.
Situationally, the offense has been solid without being dominant. Ohio State is converting 44.3% of its third-down chances, which ranks 41st in the country and sixth in the Big Ten.
On fourth down, the Buckeyes are hitting at 75%, tied for eighth nationally and tied for first in the conference. In the red zone, they’re scoring touchdowns on 66.7% of their trips, tying for 47th in the country and eighth in the Big Ten.
The offensive line has been one of the trickiest groups to judge because it simply has not been healthy. Austin Siereveld has missed the last two games, and his status going forward is still unclear.
The line looks different when he’s on the field. Phillip Daniels also missed four weeks, and after returning, he allowed the sack that led to Julian Sayin’s injury.
Even with those issues, the unit made the Joe Moore Award midseason honor roll, one of 25 lines to do so. When healthy, this group looks good enough to help win a national championship, but not good enough to be the reason Ohio State wins one.
There is also real concern about where the room goes after Siereveld, Luke Montgomery and Carson Hinzman move on.
Tight end remains the most frustrating position group on the offense. The complaint is not about the players as people; it’s about whether the production matches the usage.
In Bloomington last Saturday, Ohio State had four tight ends on the field for three straight plays, which left no wide receivers on the field and no Jeremiah Smith. If the Buckeyes are going to keep leaning on that many tight ends, then they need to commit NIL resources to upgrading the position.
The receiver room is not at the level it has been in recent seasons, but it still stands as the best group on the offense. Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football, and the belief here is that he can still win the Heisman Trophy even without Julian Sayin throwing him the ball.
Through the first half of the season, Ohio State has not found another dependable target. Devin McCuin’s performances against Ball State and Iowa were the only times another Buckeye receiver made a major statistical impact on a game.
Smith has led Ohio State in catches and receiving yards in every game this season. That kind of setup can only work because he is that special. Brock Boyd and Chris Henry Jr. are also expected to become more involved as they gain experience, and there is a reason to think they may already have better chemistry with Luke Fahey than with Sayin because of all the second-team reps they have taken.
The backfield has been a weak spot, and the injury to Ja’Kobi Jackson makes it worse. Bo Jackson rushed for 1,000 yards as a true freshman, but he has not cleaned up the obvious flaws from last year.
Isaiah West has not been able to pull reps away from either Jackson, though he did run hard in the most recent game against Indiana. There is still optimism that Ja’Kobi Jackson could return for the Michigan game, but right now this group does not look good enough to support a national title run.
If Sayin really is done for the season, the running game will have to carry more of the load.
Quarterback is the biggest concern of all. Calling the situation a disaster may be too far, but Billy Fessler’s room has not lived up to expectations.
Sayin has been mostly good this year, but he was not good enough at Texas, and before the injury at Indiana, he was in the middle of his worst game as a Buckeye. As a second-year starter, he does not look significantly improved from last season beyond picking up the occasional easy scramble.
The problem with Tavien St. Clair was already obvious before Sayin went down, and now it has become a major issue.
He was always viewed as a project after coming from Division III Ohio high school football, but it is fair to expect more from a sophomore backup in this era. The comparison to 2014 no longer really fits college football.
Cardale Jones probably would have transferred before then if the current environment had existed.
Ohio State is now staring at the possibility of an undersized true freshman three-star quarterback handling the rest of the season. Maybe Luke Fahey ends up being terrific.
That cannot be ruled out until he actually plays. But as things stand, if Sayin is truly out for the year, this offense does not look like one that can win a national title.
Arthur Smith has done a good job in his first year calling plays, but the second half of the season is going to demand a lot more from him.
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