Ohio State’s 2026 season projection starts with a jolt, not a glide.
CBS Sports’ latest game-by-game forecast has the Buckeyes opening the year with a 10-2 record, a finish that would leave Ryan Day’s team outside the Big Ten’s automatic championship path and headed to the postseason as an at-large selection. For a program that measures everything against winning the Big Ten, beating Michigan and contending for a national title, that kind of outcome would land as a disappointment.
The biggest early swing in the model comes before conference play really gets rolling. After expected tune-up wins over Ball State and Kent State, Brad Crawford’s projection sends Ohio State to Austin in Week 2 and hands the Buckeyes a loss to Texas. That would be a brutal early hit for a team that brings back quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, two pieces that make this roster look as dangerous as any in the country.
Even so, Crawford’s outlook doesn’t turn into a collapse. Ohio State is projected to settle in and handle most of its Big Ten schedule, with big wins over USC, Oregon and Michigan. The Buckeyes are also expected to survive road trips to Iowa and Nebraska.
But the forecast includes another surprise along the way: a road loss to Indiana. Crawford said that even a roster this loaded “won't be immune to a pair of regular-season stumbles against championship-caliber opponents.”
That still leaves Ohio State at 8-1 in conference play and in position to reach the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. The problem is what happens there. Crawford projects a rematch with Oregon for the league title, and he has the Ducks coming out on top.
“The Ducks' experience, quarterback play and overall roster balance prove to be the difference in a tightly-contested title game, sending the Buckeyes into the playoff as an at-large team rather than conference champions," Crawford wrote.
So the path in this projection is clear: a September loss in Austin, a head-scratching stumble at Indiana, a trip to the Big Ten title game, and no trophy at the end of it. For Ohio State, that would be a season full of talent, wins and pressure - but not the clean run Columbus expects.
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The bigger picture is what makes the pursuit tricky. Tavien St. Clair is expected to be the starter after this season, Julian Sayin is likely headed toward the NFL, and Ohio State is also juggling other recruiting priorities, which could leave the staff leaning on the transfer portal for future depth instead of adding another 2027 quarterback. For now, Edmunds remains the name to watch, but the path from here is anything but settled. [Read more 🡒]