Ohio State’s trip to Bloomington sets up as a tight one on paper, even if the numbers still tilt slightly toward the Buckeyes.
That’s the big takeaway from the analytics preview of this 2026 matchup: two elite teams, both loaded near the top of the national rankings, separated by the slimmest of margins in several models. Ohio State enters with an FPI of 28.2, good for No. 3 nationally, while Indiana sits right behind at 25.8 and No.
- The FPI matchup predictor gives Ohio State the edge at 51.4 percent, but the gap is barely there.
The broader forecast is just as narrow. Ohio State’s projected record comes in at 10.1-2.6, while Indiana is pegged at 11.4-1.4.
Both teams are projected to reach six wins with 100 percent certainty in the model, and both are squarely in the College Football Playoff mix. Ohio State’s CFP chance is listed at 76.9 percent, compared with Indiana’s 88.1 percent.
The Buckeyes have a 12.4 percent shot to win the national title; Indiana is at 9.9 percent.
SP+ sees Ohio State as the nation’s best team, with a No. 1 ranking after moving up one spot from last week. The Buckeyes’ rating sits at 29.5, powered by the top offense in the country at 41.3 and the top defense at 11.7, though their special teams grade is minus-0.2, 102nd nationally.
Indiana checks in at No. 5 after slipping two spots. The Hoosiers hold a 26.7 rating, with an offense ranked seventh at 39.3, a defense ranked fourth at 12.8, and special teams at plus-0.2, 38th.
SP+’s matchup line is as close as it gets: Ohio State is projected to win by 0.2 points, with a 51 percent chance and a rounded score of 26-26, or 26.4-26.2 before rounding. In other words, the model thinks this one is basically a coin flip.
Other computer systems are nearly as split. Sagarin has Ohio State at 94.69, No. 3, and Indiana at 91.70, No.
- The Power Rank also keeps the teams close, putting Ohio State at 25.77, fifth nationally, and Indiana at 24.53, sixth.
But that model actually leans the other way, projecting Indiana to beat Ohio State by 1.7 points at home with a 55 percent win chance.
The advanced metrics show why this rematch could go either direction.
When Ohio State has the ball against Indiana’s defense, the Buckeyes carry an EPA/pass mark of 0.42, second nationally, against an Indiana defense that ranks 76th in that category at 0.08. Ohio State is only 53rd in EPA/rush at 0.07, while Indiana’s run defense sits 24th at minus-0.09.
The Buckeyes also show a 65.2 percent available yards percentage, fourth in the country, against an Indiana defense that allows 37.5 percent, 23rd. Ohio State’s offense has been strong on early downs too, ranking ninth at 0.23 EPA/play, while Indiana’s defense is 48th at 0.01.
On third and fourth down, Ohio State is at 52.3 percent success, 21st, against Indiana’s 37.5 percent allowed, 25th.
Indiana’s offense brings a different kind of stress to Ohio State’s defense. The Hoosiers lead the nation in EPA/pass at 0.46, and Ohio State’s pass defense ranks seventh at minus-0.19.
Indiana is 19th in EPA/rush at 0.16, while Ohio State’s run defense is 15th at minus-0.12. Indiana also ranks first in early downs EPA/play at 0.29, and Ohio State’s defense is seventh at minus-0.14.
On third and fourth down, Indiana sits 55th at 46.7 percent, while Ohio State’s defense is 22nd in success rate allowed at 36.6 percent.
The recent history between these programs adds another layer to the matchup. Ohio State leads the all-time series 80-13-5, but that doesn’t capture what has happened under Curt Cignetti. Ohio State beat Indiana 38-15 in Columbus in 2024, then Indiana answered with a 13-10 win in the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game, ending Ohio State’s run of 30 straight wins over the Hoosiers.
As for Bloomington, you have to go back to 1988 for Indiana’s last home win over Ohio State, when Bill Mallory’s Hoosiers beat John Cooper’s Buckeyes 41-7. That game also marked the first time Indiana had beaten Ohio State in back-to-back meetings since 1904, after the Hoosiers had already won 31-10 in Columbus in 1987.
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