Oregon’s road back to the College Football Playoff is crowded, and the margin for error is getting thinner by the week.
The No. 13 Ducks already have one loss, and that means they can’t afford to keep stacking them if they want a third straight CFP berth.
The challenge gets even steeper from here: eight straight Big Ten games, no bye week, and a schedule that leaves very little room to breathe. The good news for Dan Lanning’s team is that it’s not alone in the one-loss race.
There are several contenders - including a cluster in the Big Ten - standing in Oregon’s way entering Week 6.
Ohio State sits at No. 5 despite seven undefeated teams being ranked below the Buckeyes in the latest AP Poll, and there’s a clear case for why they’re still treated like a heavyweight. Jeremiah Smith gives them a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at receiver, and the Buckeyes already own a signature win over a gritty Iowa team.
Their only defeat came on the final drive against No. 1 Texas.
Oregon still has Ohio State on the schedule, and the Buckeyes’ own path is lined with danger too. They still face ranked games against top-25 Indiana and USC in a three-week stretch. If they handle the unranked teams and avoid more than one loss in that run, their schedule should keep them in strong postseason shape.
LSU has its own argument. The Tigers’ lone loss came on the road against a top-10 opponent, and ESPN writer Paolo Uggetti even made the case that LSU is the best one-loss team outside of Ohio State and would likely be favored over Oregon on a neutral field. Still, the resume has some holes: all four of coach Lane Kiffin’s squad have come at home, and its only top-25 win right now is against Texas A&M, which has since fallen out of the rankings.
The Tigers still have a brutal finish ahead, with ranked matchups against No. 17 Mississippi State, No.
6 Alabama, No. 1 Texas and No.
15 Tennessee. Only the Tennessee game is on the road.
If LSU runs the table, it should be in. Even one loss to one of those ranked opponents could still be enough, especially if that loss comes against Alabama or Texas.
Ole Miss has the advantage of owning the head-to-head edge over LSU after beating the Tigers in the regular season, but the Rebels’ loss profile is tougher to overlook. Outside of Oregon, they have the second-lowest-ranked loss on this list, according to the latest AP Poll.
Ole Miss does have two ranked wins, and its opening win over then-No. 24 Louisville also helps the case.
But the path ahead is unforgiving: Texas, Georgia, No. 14 Missouri and No.
17 Mississippi State are all still on the schedule.
That defeat to Florida - and by more than three touchdowns - hangs over the Rebels’ playoff hopes. There’s still plenty in front of them, but another slip or two would make the CFP case shaky fast.
USC is another one-loss Big Ten team Oregon has to keep an eye on, and the Ducks are directly responsible for that blemish. Lincoln Riley’s team has drawn plenty of concern from its own fanbase, and the chatter around Riley has even reached hot-seat territory.
The Trojans still have three ranked games left, against No. 5 Ohio State, No.
7 Indiana and No. 21 UCLA.
The road situation doesn’t make things easier. USC has four road games left, and that includes the Indiana and UCLA trips, even though the UCLA game is still in Los Angeles.
The Trojans also didn’t look sharp on the road against a 1-4 Rutgers team. There may not be a soft landing anywhere in sight, but USC still has a chance to steady itself if it can survive the stretch.
Iowa may not be on Oregon’s schedule, but the Hawkeyes are absolutely part of the playoff conversation. They also have one loss, and it came to Ohio State, a title favorite. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State or USC, Iowa may already be past the hardest part of its schedule.
The Hawkeyes no longer have any more games against teams ranked in the latest AP Poll. Their toughest remaining tests are road trips to Minnesota and Northwestern, a home finale against Nebraska and, if they get there, the Big Ten Championship Game. In a conference that’s already showing how unpredictable it can be, Kirk Ferentz’s team has every reason to stay in the mix.
Oregon’s own loss came in a 39-31 defeat at No. 18 Oklahoma State in Week 2, and that result cuts both ways.
It leaves little room for mistakes over the rest of the season, but it also gives the Ducks a chance to show that an early setback doesn’t define them. The committee may be more forgiving of a September loss than a late-season stumble, especially if the teams ahead of Oregon start taking hits in November.
That’s where Oregon’s win over USC in Week 4 matters, and why the Nov. 7 trip to Ohio State could loom so large. A second ranked win over UCLA would help too, and possible victories over Nebraska and Northwestern would only strengthen the case. Oregon can’t control the rest of the Big Ten chaos, but it can keep putting itself in position when those head-to-head chances arrive.
For the Ducks, the formula is simple: keep winning, and the playoff path stays open. If they do lose again, it probably needs to be a close one against a ranked opponent to leave the door cracked.
In Other News...
Simeon Caldwell Is Giving Ohio States Secondary A New Decision To Make
Simeon Caldwell arrived at Ohio State with the kind of preseason expectations that usually keep a freshman safety in the background, but his early work has pushed him into a more meaningful spot in the Buckeyes secondary. He has seen the field in multiple games already, and his usage has grown as the coaching staff has continued to trust him more in the defensive rotation. The staffs interest in him has only sharpened because he brings versatility to a room that already has plenty of competition.
Caldwells most notable opportunities have come in expanded snaps against Iowa, where he held up well in coverage and showed he can tackle in space. His role has been growing in nickel and dime packages, the kind of subpackages that demand safeties who can handle tight ends and bigger receivers without sacrificing too much on the back end. For Ohio State, that kind of flexibility gives the defense another option to sort through, and it could keep changing how the secondary is deployed from week to week. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Freshmen Suddenly Have A Real Chance To Break Through
Ryan Days latest update on Ohio States young wide receivers gave a clearer picture of where the room stands heading into Maryland. Freshmen Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd have been making progress, and Day said both have shown the kind of confidence that can earn more trust in the passing game. With the Buckeyes still sorting through their receiver rotation, the door is at least a little more open for the first-year players to carve out snaps.
The timing matters because Ohio State may need extra help at the position, and the staff has already been looking for more ways to spread the field. That creates a real opening for Henry and Boyd to get involved in a game that could test the depth chart a little more than expected, while Kyle Parker is also positioned to enter the mix after missing the early part of the season. The next step is whether those practice flashes turn into actual game reps when the Buckeyes line up against Maryland. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Has A Few Injury Questions At The Worst Time
Ohio States first availability report for the Maryland game brought a few expected bumps, but the overall picture was still fairly manageable. The Buckeyes entered the week with several players either out or uncertain, yet the list also suggested the roster is generally in good shape heading into the matchup.
The biggest concern for the offense is the status of wide receivers Devin McCuin and Brandon Inniss, both of whom were listed as questionable. On the other side of the ball, safety Leroy Roker III was ruled out, leaving Ohio State to sort through a handful of late-week injury questions at a time when depth and stability matter even more. [Read more 🡒]