For all the frustration that came out of Ohio State’s latest loss to USC, the Buckeyes are still very much alive in the race for Indianapolis. Their goals haven’t disappeared. They still control a path to the Big Ten Championship Game, and the road is clearer than it might look after a rough night.
Ohio State is sitting in third place in the Big Ten standings right now, with UCLA first at 5-0, Indiana second at 5-1, and the Buckeyes right behind at 4-1. But because Ohio State beat Indiana in Bloomington, the Buckeyes are effectively in second place since the Hoosiers have already played one more conference game.
If Ohio State wins out, it is guaranteed a trip to Indianapolis as long as one of three things happens: UCLA wins out, Indiana loses a game, or UCLA loses at least two games.
There is, however, one messy scenario that could keep the Buckeyes out even if they finish 8-1 in conference play. If Ohio State and Indiana both win out and UCLA drops exactly one game, the top of the league would end up in a three-way tie at 8-1.
That’s where things get tricky. Ohio State’s head-to-head win over Indiana would seem like it should carry the day, but it doesn’t work that way in a multi-team tiebreaker unless every tied team has played each other. Since UCLA hasn’t faced either Ohio State or Indiana, the conference would have to move to the next step.
That next step is record against common opponents. In this case, the shared opponents are Michigan and USC, which are UCLA’s final two games.
If UCLA’s lone loss comes against one of those teams, Indiana would finish first because it would be 2-0 against the common opponents, while Ohio State and UCLA would both be 1-1. Then the tiebreaker would move to conference opponent winning percentage.
At the moment, Ohio State’s conference opponent winning percentage is .532, while UCLA’s is .435, which would send the Buckeyes to Indianapolis. But if UCLA’s one loss comes against Minnesota or Illinois instead, UCLA would be 2-0 against the common opponents, and that’s the one version of the one-loss scenario where Ohio State gets squeezed out.
The Buckeyes can also afford another loss and still have a path, though the margin gets thinner fast. If they drop one more game, they are not automatically done. If they lose twice more, though, they would need a much more complicated chain of results to get back into the title game picture.
USC, fresh off its win over Ohio State, is 4-2 in Big Ten play. There are also six teams sitting at 3-2: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Oregon, and Wisconsin.
Ohio State still has Oregon and Northwestern left on the schedule. The Buckeyes have already beaten Illinois and Iowa, but the USC loss is now part of the equation.
If Ohio State were to lose to Nebraska or Michigan while USC also loses again, but not to Indiana, the Buckeyes could still potentially come out on top in a multi-team tiebreaker with two losses. But with so many games still ahead, that picture is far from settled. For now, the important part is simple: Ohio State still has a real path to Indy.
In Other News...
Jeremiah Smith Just Got A Huge Heisman Opening For Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith has spent this season looking every bit like the kind of receiver who can tilt the Heisman conversation, and the numbers back it up. He has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns, production that places him among the nations leaders in all three categories and has made him a central reason Ohio States offense has stayed so dangerous.
Now the path in front of Smith may be a little clearer after Miami receiver Malachi Toney suffered a high ankle sprain that required surgery and will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. For Ohio State, the development matters because Smith remains one of the Buckeyes most important weapons as they try to lock down a College Football Playoff spot, and any shift in the national award race only adds more attention to what he does next. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Oregon Matchup Just Got Complicated By Key Injury Changes
The build-up to Ohio States matchup with Oregon has taken on a different look after injuries started reshaping both sides of the field. The Buckeyes and Ducks were already bracing for a high-stakes game, but the latest injury updates have added another layer of uncertainty, with both teams now having to adjust their plans around key personnel changes before kickoff.
For Oregon, the biggest immediate concern is the status of running back Jordon Davison, who is expected to be out week-to-week with a lower-extremity injury. There is at least some encouraging news on the other side of the ball, with wide receiver Jeremiah McClellan probable to return from a foot injury, but the larger question remains how both teams will handle the ripple effects if the quarterback situation shifts again by game day. [Read more 🡒]
USC Freshman Made Ohio States Loss Even Harder To Swallow
Mark Bowmans return gave USC another layer in its upset of Ohio State, and it came at a time when the Buckeyes could least afford to see the Trojans getting healthier. The freshman tight end had been out with a hamstring injury, but he was back on the field and made his presence felt even on a limited snap count, giving USC a useful target in the passing game while also helping as a blocker.
For Ohio State, the frustrating part is how quickly Bowman changed the feel of the game once he was available again. His 70-yard catch-and-run stood out as one of the biggest plays of the night, a reminder that USC was able to lean on a young player who can affect the game in more than one way. Even with his workload managed, Bowmans impact was enough to make the Buckeyes loss sting a little more. [Read more 🡒]