Ohio State’s path back to the Big Ten Championship Game is still alive, but it now depends on a lot more than just the Buckeyes taking care of their own business.
The cleanest part of the equation is simple enough: Ohio State has to win out. That means beating Northwestern at home on Nov.
14, Nebraska on the road on Nov. 21 and Michigan in Columbus to finish 7-2 in Big Ten play. The Buckeyes are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the conference after back-to-back losses to USC and Oregon, and they’ll have to make that push without Julian Sayin, who reportedly underwent elbow surgery last month.
“It’s not going to be next week or next month,” Ryan Day said Thursday.
From there, the scoreboard-watching gets wild. Ohio State fans actually need Michigan to beat Oregon on Saturday, because the Wolverines visit the Ducks two weeks before coming to Columbus. A Michigan win would hand Oregon a third Big Ten loss and help Ohio State erase the damage from last weekend’s head-to-head defeat.
There’s another route, and it starts with UCLA staying perfect in league play. The Bruins are 6-0 in the Big Ten and still have Illinois, Michigan and USC left.
If UCLA runs the table, it would reach Indianapolis at 9-0 and also deal Illinois and USC their third conference losses. That would open the door for Ohio State, but only if Indiana, Oregon and Wisconsin each lose at least once.
That scenario would work in the Buckeyes’ favor because of the head-to-head results already on the board. Indiana could still finish 7-2, and Iowa could too, but Ohio State has beaten both on the road. In a tie for second, the Buckeyes would own the right tiebreakers.
Indiana can still remove itself from the picture entirely by winning out against USC, Washington and Purdue. If that happens, the Hoosiers would finish 8-1 and be out of Ohio State’s reach in this setup.
Iowa’s 24-10 win over Northwestern changed things a bit, too. It helped strengthen one of Ohio State’s better wins, but it also denied the Buckeyes a chance to see Northwestern pick up a third league loss before the teams meet Saturday. Ohio State would have preferred that result.
The same kind of math applies elsewhere on the schedule. A Bruins win would give Illinois its third Big Ten loss and keep UCLA on track for a championship game berth of its own.
A USC win would hand Indiana its second conference loss and set up a path for Ohio State to lean on its October win over the Hoosiers. An Oregon loss would drop the Ducks behind Ohio State in the final standings if the Buckeyes finish the job.
And a Maryland upset would push Wisconsin to a third conference loss and knock the Badgers out of a possible 7-2 tie.
Getting to Indianapolis would still matter plenty for Ohio State. The Big Ten champion gets an automatic bid on Dec. 5, so the Buckeyes could settle their playoff fate on the field if the rest of the league breaks the right way.
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