The Ohio State Buckeyes are sitting atop the College Football Playoff landscape as the clear betting favorites to win it all in the 2025-2026 season. Right behind them?
Not Georgia. Not Alabama.
It’s the Indiana Hoosiers-yes, those Hoosiers-who’ve emerged as the second-strongest contender in the eyes of oddsmakers. And after those two Big Ten powerhouses, there’s a noticeable drop-off.
Make no mistake-this is Ohio State’s playoff to lose.
But don’t let the betting lines fool you into thinking the Buckeyes have a cakewalk ahead. According to Sports Illustrated’s Eva Geitheim, Ohio State faces the third-toughest path to the national title, trailing only Georgia and, surprisingly, still ahead of Indiana. And while the Hoosiers may have a smoother route on paper, their presence in this conversation is no fluke-they’ve already proven they can go toe-to-toe with the best.
Let’s break down what lies ahead for the Buckeyes.
A Defense Built for December (and January)
The first hurdle for Ohio State comes in the form of either Texas A&M or Miami, depending on how the Cotton Bowl Classic shakes out. Both programs have enough talent to pose a threat-Miami with its speed and athleticism, A&M with its physicality and depth. But the Buckeyes’ defense, which has been nothing short of dominant all season, is built to neutralize just about any offensive scheme.
Under Matt Patricia, Ohio State has constructed a defense that’s not just good-it’s historic. The Buckeyes lead the nation in both total defense and passing yards allowed, and they’re giving up just 8.2 points per game.
That’s not a typo. This group doesn’t just bend without breaking-they don’t bend at all.
Even if Ohio State advances to face a high-powered offense like Ole Miss or Georgia in the semifinals, their defensive identity gives them a real edge. Patricia’s unit doesn’t just stop drives; it demoralizes them. Teams don’t just come away without points-they come away questioning their entire game plan.
The Indiana Problem
But there’s one team that’s already cracked the code-and it’s the one team Ohio State least wants to see again: Indiana.
The Hoosiers didn’t just challenge the Buckeyes in the Big Ten title game-they beat them at their own game. Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan dialed up a game plan that outgained Brian Hartline’s offense.
Indiana’s offensive execution was sharp, but it was their performance in the trenches that truly set the tone. They controlled the line of scrimmage, disrupted timing, and made the Buckeyes uncomfortable for four quarters.
And then there’s the missed field goal. Jayden Fielding’s infamous miss in the Big Ten Championship still lingers as a painful reminder that sometimes, it’s the smallest moments that separate glory from heartbreak.
Ryan Day, for all his offensive brilliance, has had his share of struggles when the pressure’s on and the opposing coach has his number. For years, he couldn’t get past Jim Harbaugh and Michigan. Now, Cignetti and Indiana might be his new postseason headache.
The Bigger Picture
Geitheim didn’t even mention Indiana in her breakdown of Ohio State’s potential matchups. That omission speaks volumes.
It’s not just that Indiana is a threat-they’re the threat. They’ve already proven they can beat the Buckeyes, and they’ve done it on a big stage.
That kind of confidence is hard to quantify but impossible to ignore.
Meanwhile, the Hoosiers’ potential playoff path-possibly through a flawed Oklahoma or Alabama squad, then a showdown with Oregon or a talented but still unproven Texas Tech team-looks far more manageable than what Ohio State might face. That’s not to say it’s easy, but it’s certainly not the gauntlet the Buckeyes are staring down.
And while teams like Tulane or James Madison could be bracket busters if everything breaks right, they’re not built to sustain a run through the likes of Ohio State or Indiana. The Green Wave might shock someone early, but they don’t have the depth or defensive muscle to hang with the heavyweights.
Final Word
Right now, Indiana holds the edge in the head-to-head department. They’ve done what no one else has-beat Ohio State when it mattered. But the Buckeyes still have the most complete roster in the country, the most dominant defense, and the pedigree of a reigning national champion.
If Ohio State can get past their early-round matchup and avoid another mental slip against Indiana, they’re the team to beat. But if the Hoosiers get another shot, don’t be surprised if they make the most of it.
This College Football Playoff is shaping up to be a Big Ten battle for the ages-and the rest of the field might just be along for the ride.