Oregon’s trip to Columbus may end up being the turning point that keeps its College Football Playoff hopes breathing.
Dan Lanning’s Ducks walked into Ohio Stadium and left with a 41-28 win over Ohio State in Week 10, and the second CFP rankings on Tuesday night showed exactly how much that result mattered. Oregon jumped seven places, moving from No. 23 in the first release to No. 16, while the Buckeyes slid all the way to No. 20.
That climb gives Oregon a real path forward, even if the margin for error is basically gone. The Ducks still need to win out to have a shot at the 12-team field, but the schedule ahead is far friendlier than the one they just survived. Two of their final three regular-season games are at Autzen Stadium, and all three come against teams sitting near the bottom of the Big Ten standings.
Michigan is next, and the Wolverines are 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference play after firing their offensive coordinator. Oregon’s offense is still settling in, so that defense could be the first real test.
After that comes the lone road trip, a visit to Michigan State, which sits at the bottom of the league at 3-6 overall and 1-5 in Big Ten play. The regular season closes with a rivalry game against Washington, which is 5-4 overall and 2-4 in conference play.
The bigger question hanging over Oregon is the one that has hovered around the entire CFP race: can a three-loss team really get in? The answer, at least in this cycle, appears to be maybe. Alabama already proved that a team can survive regular-season losses to Florida State and Oklahoma, plus a loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship, and still land an at-large bid in 2025.
Oregon’s résumé now has some weight behind it. The Ducks own wins over Boise State, which is No. 24 in the second CFP rankings, USC at No.
18, Northwestern, which was previously ranked No. 20 in the AP Poll, and now Ohio State. That collection of wins gives the committee something substantial to work with if Oregon keeps stacking victories.
And if the Ducks run the table but still need another route, the Big Ten Championship could provide it. That path would require help from UCLA, along with additional losses from Illinois, USC and Indiana. It’s not simple, but it is there.
For Ohio State, the loss to Oregon is a major setback. The Buckeyes dropped eight spots and now look like a team that could miss the CFP for the first time since 2023, when the field was still only four teams. That would be a stunning fall for a program that opened the season No. 1 in the preseason AP Poll and was viewed as a national title favorite.
The expectations were even bigger because Ohio State won the National Championship in 2024, beating Oregon along the way, and appeared set for another title push. Instead, the Buckeyes stumbled with consecutive losses in the Big Ten Championship to Indiana and in the CFP to the Miami Hurricanes.
Their best wins this season both came on the road. Ohio State beat the defending champion Indiana Hoosiers 19-15 on Oct. 17 and also handled then-ranked Iowa 31-14 on Oct. 3.
The problem is that every loss on the Buckeyes’ résumé came against a ranked opponent: Texas, USC and Oregon. That could help if the committee decides to view those defeats generously. But with several two- and three-loss teams still in the mix nationally and in the Big Ten, Ohio State’s lack of tiebreakers over USC and Oregon is a real obstacle.
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