Are the Buckeyes Still the Team to Beat? Why Ohio State Remains the Playoff Favorite Despite Big Ten Title Loss
The College Football Playoff field is set, and while the rankings have Indiana sitting at No. 1, there’s a growing sentiment across the sport that the real top dog might still be Ohio State. Yes, the Buckeyes just lost to the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game, 13-10. But when it comes to evaluating these teams beyond the scoreboard-through the lens of betting markets, advanced metrics, and pure football analysis-Ohio State is still drawing the kind of respect usually reserved for national title favorites.
According to CBS Sports analyst Thomas Casale, the Buckeyes would be favored against any team in the 12-team playoff field, including Indiana and SEC Champion Georgia. That’s not just a gut feeling-it’s a reflection of how oddsmakers and analysts view Ohio State’s overall profile, even after a stumble late in the season.
Buckeyes Still Slight Favorites in Rematch Scenarios
Casale’s breakdown doesn’t ignore the head-to-head loss to Indiana, but it does put it in context. If the Buckeyes and Hoosiers were to meet again on a neutral field, Casale says Ohio State would be a slight favorite-around 1.5 to 2 points.
That’s a subtle but telling distinction. The first time they met, Ohio State was favored by 3.5 points.
The line would be tighter now, but the Buckeyes would still get the edge.
The same logic applies to a potential semifinal clash with Georgia. Despite the Bulldogs' SEC title and playoff pedigree, Casale would still make them small underdogs-again, by about 1.5 to 2 points-if they faced off against Ohio State. That’s how razor-thin the margins are among the top contenders, but it also underscores how much belief there still is in the Buckeyes’ ceiling.
Betting Markets vs. Scoreboards
This is one of those moments where the scoreboard and the sportsbooks tell two different stories. Indiana won the Big Ten title fair and square. But in the world of power ratings and betting lines, where the goal is to project future performance rather than reward past results, Ohio State continues to hold the top spot.
Why? Because the Buckeyes’ overall body of work, talent level, and metrics still suggest they’re the most complete team in the country.
The loss to Indiana was a close, defensive slugfest-one that didn’t erase everything Ohio State has shown over the course of the season. If anything, it reinforced how evenly matched these teams are.
The Irony of Being the Favorite
Of course, being the favorite in this era of college football doesn’t guarantee much. Since the rise of national sports betting, we’ve seen upsets become almost routine in the postseason.
So while Ohio State may be the team oddsmakers respect the most, that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes are immune to chaos. In fact, it might just put a bigger target on their backs.
Still, there’s no denying that Ohio State enters the playoff with the kind of aura usually reserved for teams that just won their conference. They didn’t. But they’re still the team many believe everyone else has to go through.
Indiana’s Win, Mendoza’s Heisman, and the Shrug Heard ’Round the Country
Meanwhile, Indiana’s Big Ten title win should’ve been a headline-grabbing moment. Same goes for Fernando Mendoza’s Heisman win.
But in both cases, the reaction has been surprisingly muted. Instead of celebrating what the Hoosiers accomplished, the conversation has shifted to whether Ohio State is still better-and whether Mendoza’s win was overshadowed by the drama surrounding the Heisman runner-ups.
Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia drew more buzz in New York than Mendoza, thanks to a show-stealing presence that had more people talking about the runner-up than the winner. Even Julian Sayin, another finalist, found himself caught up in the narrative-not for anything he said, but for how the spotlight seemed to avoid the actual trophy recipient.
It’s a strange twist. Indiana wins the Big Ten.
Mendoza wins the Heisman. And yet, neither feels like the center of attention heading into the playoff.
Curt Cignetti’s Underdog Hoosiers Deserve More Love
That’s not fair to Curt Cignetti and the job he’s done in Bloomington. What he’s pulled off with this Indiana team is nothing short of remarkable. Taking the Hoosiers to a Big Ten title and a No. 1 playoff seed is the kind of turnaround that should be celebrated across the sport.
But in a playoff era where narratives move fast and betting lines shape perception, Indiana’s moment in the sun has been partly eclipsed by the team they just beat. If they want full recognition, they may have to go out and win the whole thing.
Because right now, Ohio State may not be ranked No. 1-but in the eyes of many, they’re still the team to beat.