Ohio State is back in the spotlight Saturday, and the betting market is asking a big question: are the Buckeyes really 10.5 points better than Northwestern?
FanDuel Sportsbook opened Ohio State as a 10.5-point favorite for the Big Noon matchup at Ohio Stadium, with the over/under set at 47.5. That number suggests oddsmakers expect the Buckeyes to steady themselves after a rough stretch that included a 41-28 loss to Oregon.
That’s a tough sell based on what Ohio State has shown lately. The Buckeyes have dropped consecutive regular-season games for the first time since 2011, and the last two weeks have done plenty to shake confidence in this group.
After a 30-18 loss to USC on Halloween, Ohio State had a chance to get things back under control against Oregon. Instead, it blew an early 14-0 lead, gave up 38 straight points and walked out with another frustrating defeat.
The Buckeyes are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play, and their College Football Playoff hopes are basically gone. There’s still a mathematical path if chaos hits everywhere else, but that feels more like fantasy than reality at this point.
Northwestern, meanwhile, comes in at 6-3 overall and 3-3 in conference play under David Braun. The Wildcats had won four in a row before back-to-back losses to Oregon and Iowa.
Even so, their season has included a 34-13 win over Penn State, a 42-14 victory against Rutgers and a 29-23 road loss to Indiana. Their most recent setback, a 24-10 loss to Iowa, was a step back, but not enough to make them look like a team Ohio State should simply brush aside.
There’s also a familiar face on the other sideline. Chip Kelly is back in Columbus, now serving as Northwestern’s offensive coordinator after a brief stint with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Kelly helped guide Ohio State to the 2024 national championship, and his return adds another layer to a game that already has plenty of attention. He knows Ryan Day and Ohio State’s offensive approach well, and he’ll be facing a Buckeye defense that just allowed 41 points to Oregon.
The series history leans heavily toward Ohio State. The Buckeyes own a 66-14-1 all-time record against Northwestern and have won the last 11 meetings.
They’ve taken 35 of the past 36 matchups dating back to 1971, including a 31-7 win at Wrigley Field in 2024. Northwestern’s last victory in the series came in 2004, when it stunned Ohio State 33-27 in overtime in Evanston.
Still, history only goes so far when a team is struggling the way Ohio State has been. The Buckeyes have dealt with penalties, questionable coaching decisions, inconsistent execution and missed chances when games were there to be won. That’s a lot to ask a team to clean up in one week, especially when the spread is sitting in double digits.
Ohio State may well win on Saturday. Covering 10.5 points is a different matter entirely.
In Other News...
Ohio States Oregon Collapse Exposed A Problem Buckeyes Fans Feared
Ohio States loss to Oregon in Columbus had the feel of a game that started with promise and then slipped away in plain sight. The Buckeyes came out strong, but the rest of the afternoon turned into a reminder that early momentum only matters if it can be sustained, and this one quickly exposed some of the same concerns fans have been carrying for a while. Jeremiah Smith was not used nearly enough, and the offense never seemed to fully settle into a rhythm as the game changed around it.
Luke Faheys performance only added to the unease, while the defense looked far removed from the unit Ohio State expected to lean on in a matchup like this. The bigger frustration, though, was the lack of clear adjustment as Oregon kept finding answers and the Buckeyes did not. For a team with playoff ambitions, a home collapse like this does more than count as one bad result - it raises the kind of questions that can linger well beyond a single Saturday. [Read more 🡒]
Jeremiah Smiths Frustration Just Raised A Bigger Ohio State Concern
Jeremiah Smiths frustration was hard to miss in Ohio States loss to Oregon, a defeat that left the Buckeyes staring at a tougher path to the playoff. Even in a game that slipped away 41-28, Smith still produced, finishing with seven catches for 133 yards and a touchdown, which only underscored how much Ohio State leaned on him when the offense needed a spark.
The bigger concern now is what his visible irritation might say about the state of the Buckeyes season and how they handle the fallout from a damaging setback. One analyst even raised the possibility that Smith might not play again this year, though that remains unconfirmed, and for a team trying to steady itself after the Oregon loss, any uncertainty around its top playmaker only adds to the pressure. [Read more 🡒]
Urban Meyer Just Added Fuel To Indianas CFP Debate
Urban Meyer gave the College Football Playoff debate a fresh jolt by questioning how the committee is sorting Ohio State and Indiana. The former Buckeyes coach pointed to the Buckeyes head-to-head win over Indiana and said he did not understand why No. 12 Ohio State sits eight spots behind No. 4 Indiana, especially when the discussion turns to how teams are being judged beyond the loss column.
Meyer also took aim at the committees handling of nonconference scheduling, arguing that Ohio States ranking does not match what it has shown on the field. Indianas case is strong in its own right at 8-1, with wins over Michigan and Nebraska, but Meyer noted the Hoosiers have not beaten a ranked opponent, leaving the playoff conversation with a familiar tension: rsum versus result, and a gap in the rankings that still needs explaining. [Read more 🡒]