Week 1 is barely rolling and Ohio State already has two names sitting right in the middle of the Heisman conversation.
Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are back in the spotlight as the Buckeyes open the 2026 season Saturday afternoon against Ball State, a matchup that should give Ryan Day and company a controlled start. It won’t decide anything for the award, but it does give both stars a chance to begin building the kind of early-season momentum that can matter come December.
The market still has plenty of room for movement, and the latest numbers show just how crowded the race already is. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah leads the way at 15%, followed by CJ Carr at 11%, Arch Manning at 10%, Trinidad Chambliss at 8%, and Dante Moore, Sayin, and Malachi Toney all clustered at 7%. Jayden Maiava and Smith sit at 6%, while John Mateer is at 5% and Josh Hoover at 4%.
Mensah’s rise makes sense after his strong Friday night performance against Stanford, where he threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns. Toney also climbed after a huge outing of his own, piling up 12 catches, 234 yards, and three scores, which pushed him past Smith as the top non-quarterback on the board.
That’s the kind of early swing that comes with this market. Last season’s winner, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, opened with 193 passing yards, 33 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown in Week 1, which is a reminder that a hot start can help but doesn’t lock anything in. There are still at least 11 more games for these players to shape the race.
Still, the money is clearly leaning toward quarterbacks. Eight of the last ten Heisman winners have been QBs, and the trade markets on Polymarket and Kalshi reflect that trend.
For Sayin, the appeal is tied to efficiency and command. The Buckeyes quarterback isn’t winning the conversation with raw tools alone, but he’s showing elite football IQ and taking advantage of the talent around him. On Kalshi, he sits at 7% to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy, and his number is similar on Polymarket, though recent wagering has made that market a little more skewed.
Smith’s case looks different, but it’s just as real. He’s at 6% on Kalshi, and that’s where the better value appears to be for traders looking at the Ohio State wideout. With back-to-back seasons over 1,200 yards, he’s already established himself as one of the sport’s premier playmakers.
There’s also the context of how the offense has changed around him. Last year, Smith shared the spotlight with Carnell Tate, who finished with 51 receptions and 875 yards. This season, Smith stands as the clear focal point, and that kind of workload could push his production even higher.
Sayin had already been right there with Mendoza entering Conference Championship weekend last year, and if Ohio State had won that game, the trophy could have ended up in Sayin’s hands at Lincoln Center.
Smith, meanwhile, remains the kind of talent scouts already view as a likely top-five pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. But this season may give him his best shot yet at actually making a Heisman run.
One more Buckeye worth mentioning before kickoff: running back Bo Jackson, who carries a 1% implied probability on both platforms.
In Other News...
Ohio State Faces A More Dangerous Texas Test Than Last Year
The rematch on the schedule already carries enough weight, but this one comes with a different feel for Ohio State. The Buckeyes and Texas are meeting for the third straight year, only this time it is in Austin at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, with ESPNs College GameDay on hand and the Longhorns carrying a 1.5-point edge. After the last two seasons gave both programs a fresh look at each other, the matchup now arrives with even more attention and a bigger stage.
For Ohio State, the challenge is not just the venue or the buildup, but the version of Texas waiting on the other side. Arch Manning gives the Longhorns a new layer at quarterback, while new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp adds a familiar edge to that side of the ball. For a Buckeye team used to measuring itself against the nations best, this one feels less like another early heavyweight game and more like a true test of how much has changed since the last time these teams lined up. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Kienholz Just Sparked An Ohio State QB Debate
Lincoln Kienholz spent enough time around Ohio State to know how unforgiving the quarterback conversation can be there, and his latest outing at Louisville gave the discussion a fresh jolt. In his debut against Ole Miss, the former Buckeye showed the kind of production that turns heads quickly, topping 300 yards and throwing three touchdowns while looking comfortable as both a passer and a runner.
For Ohio State fans, the appeal is obvious because it feeds into the never-ending question of what might have been and what the Buckeyes missed when Kienholz moved on. His path also says something about the fit in college football: sometimes a player needs a different setup, a cleaner runway and a coach like Jeff Brohm to let the full skill set show up on game day, even as the foundation built in Columbus still shapes how he leads and handles the position. [Read more 🡒]
Michigan's QB Uncertainty Just Added Intrigue To The Game
Ohio State opened its season with a comfortable win over Ball State, while Michigan had a far less reassuring afternoon in a narrow escape against Western Michigan. That alone would have been enough to keep Buckeyes fans watching closely, but the storyline got more interesting when Michigan coach Kyle Whittingham left the door open on Bryce Underwoods status at quarterback, a notable twist for a position that usually settles the tone for the rest of the rivalry week chatter.
Underwoods uneven play has only deepened the questions around Michigans offense, and it carries extra weight because of what this game means beyond one Saturday in September. For Ohio State, any uncertainty on the other sideline only adds to the intrigue heading into a meeting where the Buckeyes will be paying attention to whether Michigan can steady itself, or whether the Wolverines are heading toward a bigger change than anyone expected. [Read more 🡒]