Ohio State’s playoff case has been hammered down to one narrow opening, and it runs straight through Indianapolis.
The Buckeyes’ 31-7 loss to Oregon sent them tumbling from No. 12 to No. 20 in Tuesday’s second College Football Playoff rankings, the lowest spot Ohio State has ever held since the committee began its rankings in 2014. It’s also the program’s lowest position in the AP and Coaches polls since 2014, dating back to the week after the home loss to Virginia Tech.
That drop leaves Ohio State in a brutal spot. The cleanest route would be simple enough: win out.
Northwestern, at Nebraska and Michigan are still on the schedule, and a 9-3 finish is still possible. But that record probably won’t be enough to move the Buckeyes into the field.
The issue is the resume. None of Ohio State’s final three opponents are in the CFP top 25, so there’s no chance to collect a signature win late.
The Buckeyes would still be stuck behind a crowd of two-loss teams, and their defeats came against Texas, USC and Oregon - all teams ranked ahead of them. Between Ohio State and the edge of the 12-team bracket sit Kentucky, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Houston, Iowa, Oregon, South Carolina, USC and Ole Miss, and most of those teams have fewer losses.
Two of them already beat Ohio State.
Even if the board starts to wobble, the Buckeyes would need a huge amount of help to jump from No. 20 into at-large position without another quality win. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Ohio State a 42.6% chance to make the playoff, but that number feels generous. A 9-3 Buckeyes team is probably staying home unless chaos really takes over.
That’s why the Big Ten Championship Game is the real target. In truth, it may be the only path left.
The conference picture is messy. UCLA is 9-0 and 6-0 in league play.
Indiana is 8-1 and 5-1. USC and Oregon are both 4-2, the same as Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are also behind USC and Oregon in the tiebreakers because they lost to both.
Still, the season has already shown how quickly things can shift. Ohio State would need to win out to reach 7-2 in the Big Ten.
Indiana would need at least one more loss; the Buckeyes beat the Hoosiers in Bloomington, so a two-way tie at 7-2 would tilt Ohio State’s way. USC and Oregon would both need another conference loss as well, since Ohio State lost to each of them and would need to finish ahead outright.
USC and Indiana play each other this week, so at least one of those teams is guaranteed to take a hit.
UCLA matters too. If the Bruins keep winning, they lock up one spot in Indianapolis, which means Ohio State would be fighting for the other.
If UCLA slips, the math gets even more chaotic. Multi-team ties could make the whole thing even messier, but the door is still cracked open.
There are reasons to think the race could get weird. USC already lost to Wisconsin.
Oregon has dropped games to UCLA and Illinois. Indiana’s offense hasn’t looked the same since Ohio State held the Hoosiers to 15 points in October.
One upset, maybe two, could reshape the whole conference race.
If the Buckeyes somehow get to Indianapolis and win the Big Ten title, the committee won’t matter. They’d be in.
For Ohio State, the part it can actually control starts with fixing a defense that has given up 71 points over the last two games. Luke Fahey has to keep growing.
Jeremiah Smith has to stay the centerpiece. And the Buckeyes have to beat Michigan for a second straight year.
Even if the playoff never comes into view, there’s still plenty on the line. Smith is 31 yards away from becoming the Big Ten’s all-time leading receiver.
A win over Michigan would change the feel of the season. A strong finish would also carry weight into 2027, when Julian Sayin may potentially be back.
But if Ohio State is going to make the playoff this year, it almost certainly has to do it the hard way: get to Indianapolis and win the Big Ten.
In Other News...
Ohio State Finally Made A Change Fans Saw Coming
Ohio State made the kind of midseason move fans had been expecting after a string of special teams breakdowns kept showing up at the worst possible moments. Robby Discher was fired after nine games, with the Buckeyes issues on that phase of the game becoming harder to ignore as penalties and momentum-swinging mistakes piled up in recent losses.
Ryan Day said there had simply been too many detrimental plays to keep things as they were, and the staff is now reshuffling responsibilities to finish the season. Senior analyst Rob Keys will oversee special teams the rest of the way, with other coaches taking on specific units, a sign that Ohio State is trying to steady one of the most frustrating parts of its operation before it costs them again. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Backup Quarterback Problem Just Got More Complicated
Justyn Martins role at Ohio State has become one of those quiet depth-chart stories that can suddenly matter a lot more than anyone expected. The fifth-year senior has not played this season, but with Julian Sayin sidelined, Martin is now listed as the third-string quarterback, and Ryan Day has already made it clear he likes what he has seen from him in practice. For a team that always has to be ready at quarterback, that kind of behind-the-scenes trust can carry real weight.
Martin has kept working alongside Luke Fahey and Tavien St. Clair, staying in the mix while the Buckeyes sort through their options. He has spoken confidently about the group and noted that Sayin remains supportive during his recovery, which only adds another layer to a situation that is still unfolding. For now, Martin is waiting for a chance that has not come yet, but the fact that Day is even floating game usage suggests Ohio States backup picture is far from settled. [Read more 🡒]
Chip Kelly Is Suddenly Back In Ohio State's Offensive Picture
Chip Kellys name is back in the mix around Ohio State, and not just as a nostalgic footnote. The former Buckeyes assistant, now at Northwestern, has surfaced in conversations about offensive play-caller openings, with his past tie to the program giving the idea immediate credibility. For a staff that is always under the microscope, any movement on the offensive side tends to draw attention quickly, especially when it involves a coach with Kellys rsum and familiarity with the Ohio State environment.
The broader picture is still fluid, though, because Nebraska is also being linked to Kelly and may try to sell him on the stature of the job rather than a simple financial pitch. For Ohio State, the possibility seems tied to whether current staff changes open a path, which is why the chatter feels more like a developing subplot than a settled pursuit. Even so, the fact that Kelly is being discussed in that context says plenty about how quickly the Buckeyes offensive landscape can shift. [Read more 🡒]