Ohio State enters Week 1 with a forecast that leaves almost no room for suspense.
The SP+ college football prediction model gives the preseason No. 1 Buckeyes a perfect 100 percent chance to beat Ball State, and it does not expect the opener in Columbus to be close. The projection lands at 60-0, with Ohio State favored by an expected margin of 60.4 points.
Ball State, a MAC team heading in for what is likely a profitable trip, is staring at what could be one of the widest blowout margins of the entire first full Saturday slate.
The Buckeyes are already set up as massive favorites in the betting market, too. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Ohio State as a 50.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 56.5 points. Moneyline odds are not posted.
SP+ has been strong early this season, going 6-2 against the spread for a 75.0 win percentage. The model describes itself as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” built to forecast outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
This kind of opener is nothing new for Ohio State when the schedule opens with a mismatch. In this century, the Buckeyes have twice been 50-point favorites and covered - against Florida A&M in 2013 and Maryland in 2019 - and twice failed to do so, against Rutgers in 2019 and Akron in 2024.
That history matters because huge spreads can get tricky once starters sit and the second half turns into a long runway for backups. Still, the talent gap here is obvious enough that the expectation is a lopsided result.
College Football HQ’s call is that Ohio State beats Ball State, but doesn’t cover.
The Buckeyes move on from this opener to a much bigger test in Week 2 at No. 5 Texas.
In Other News...
Ohio State Defense Faces An Early Test It Can't Dodge
Ohio States defense has no shortage of names to sort through after losing a wave of elite production from last season, and the first real chance to start answering those questions comes against Ball State. The Buckeyes are trying to replace proven playmakers at multiple spots, with the linebacker room drawing particular attention and several transfers expected to be part of the solution as the staff figures out what this group looks like in live action.
Jay Timmons is one of the more intriguing pieces in that mix, a freshman cornerback whose role could grow as the season settles in. For a defense that needs both confidence and chemistry, a game like this matters beyond the final score because it gives Ohio State a chance to see which combinations hold up, which ones need more time, and where the early uncertainty still lingers. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Is Giving Jim Tressel One Of Its Highest Honors
Ohio State is adding Jim Tressel to one of the programs most visible tributes, with his name set to join the Ring of Honor at Ohio Stadium. It is a fitting nod to a coach whose tenure in Columbus helped define an era, from the 2003 national championship to eight Big Ten titles, all of which will now be part of the display alongside his name.
Tressels place in Buckeyes history has long been secure, and this honor only reinforces how central his run from 2001 through 2010 remains to the programs identity. Already in the College Football Hall of Fame, he now gets another permanent reminder inside the stadium where his teams built so many of their biggest moments. [Read more 🡒]
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Just Reopened A Debate Ohio State Fans Never Settled
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Since then, Smith-Njigba has only added to the intrigue around that missed opportunity. He has become one of the NFLs top receivers, leading the league in receiving yards and earning a contract extension, which only sharpens the old debate over how much Ohio State might have gained if he had been able to suit up. For Buckeyes fans, it is the kind of conversation that never really dies, especially when the player at the center of it has gone on to prove just how high his ceiling really was. [Read more 🡒]