Ohio State heads into its Big Ten opener with the kind of betting respect that usually comes with a program steamrolling people, not one that just moved back into conference play.
The Buckeyes opened as 27.5-point favorites over Illinois for Saturday’s 12 noon ET kickoff at Ohio Stadium, with the total listed at 53.5 points at FanDuel. In plain English, oddsmakers are pointing toward something close to a 40-13 Ohio State win.
That number doesn’t come out of nowhere. No.
7 Ohio State is 3-0 against the spread this season, and it has done it in a few different ways. The Buckeyes covered in their 56-3 opener against Ball State, managed to cash as an underdog in the 24-23 loss to Texas, and then rolled right through the number again in Saturday’s 59-3 win over Kent State.
The over has been a little more hit-or-miss for Ohio State, though still profitable enough to keep attention on the totals market. The Ball State and Kent State games went over, while the Texas loss stayed under because of that ugly second half.
Illinois has taken the opposite route. Bret Bielema’s team comes to Columbus at 2-1 straight up, but it has failed to cover in all three games, coming up short against UAB, Duke and Southern Illinois. On the other hand, if you’ve been betting the over when the Illini play, you’ve been in good shape: every Illinois game this year has gone over the total.
Ohio State will also stay put at No. 7 in both the AP and Coaches Polls, even after blasting Kent State by 56 points as the No. 6 team in the country. The ranking shift has been a strange one for the Buckeyes. In the span of two weeks, they dropped one point at Texas and slid five spots, then pounded Kent State and still fell another place.
The source of the frustration is obvious enough. Lane Kiffin’s LSU Tigers dropped from No. 7 to No. 10 after losing to then-No.
8 Ole Miss by eight, and the comparison has not gone unnoticed. Still, the Buckeyes can at least keep leaning into the idea that they’re not getting much respect.
History, though, is very much on Ohio State’s side in the Battle for the IlliBuck. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 69-30-4, and Illinois has not beaten them since the Illini stunned No.
1 Ohio State 28-21 in Columbus in 2007. Ohio State has won 10 straight in the series.
The teams met again last season in Champaign, where Ohio State won 34-16. That game wasn’t a fireworks show for the offense, as the Buckeyes finished with just 272 yards, but they controlled it from the start.
CJ Donaldson scored twice on the ground, Bo Jackson added 47 rushing yards and a receiving touchdown, and Jeremiah Smith caught a touchdown pass from Julian Sayin. On the other side, Ohio State’s defense held Illinois to 16 points and piled up six tackles for loss, four sacks and a Payton Pierce interception.
The Buckeyes would probably take a repeat of the defensive numbers. They’d also likely welcome a little more from the offense this time around.
The analytics say Ohio State should handle this one, even if the number is a touch aggressive. SP+, the college football model, projects Ohio State at 29.2 and Illinois at 7.2, which puts the Buckeyes about 22 points better on a neutral field before home-field advantage. Add in Ohio Stadium, and the projection lands in the mid-20s - close to the spread, but still a little short of Ohio State covering 27.5.
In Other News...
Ohio State Fans Will Notice A Big Schottenstein Change This Season
Ohio State fans heading back to the Schottenstein Center this season will find a noticeably different building. The university completed a $5.2 million renovation that brought in a new scoreboard, larger ribbon boards and an upgraded audio system, giving one of the Buckeyes busiest venues a cleaner, more modern game-day feel.
Mens hockey will get the first look at the new setup on Oct. 23, with basketball right behind it as the mens and womens teams host games in late October and early November. For a building that already serves as a hub for so much Ohio State action, the changes should be hard to miss once the season gets rolling. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State's Next Road Test Just Got A Lot More Real
Ohio State rolled past Kent State 59-3 to move to 2-1, and now the schedule is starting to bring a little more clarity to what comes next. The Big Ten announced that the Buckeyes will host Illinois before heading to Iowa on Oct. 3, a matchup now locked in for a 3:30 p.m. kickoff on CBS.
For a team still settling into the season, the timing matters because Iowa has long been one of the conferences more familiar measuring sticks for Ohio State. The series history includes its share of notable games and streaks, which is part of what gives this road trip extra weight even before the Buckeyes get there. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Is Closing In On A Priority RB Battle
Ohio States win over Kent State pushed the Buckeyes to 2-1, but the weekend also carried added recruiting weight as the program welcomed a wave of official visitors to Columbus. Among the most important names on campus was a 2027 running back who has quickly moved to the top of Ohio States board, giving the staff another chance to make its case in person.
The recruitment remains open-ended, with no commitment date set, but the Buckeyes are clearly in the thick of it and are widely viewed as a leading contender. For Ohio State, landing a back of that caliber would reinforce both the long-term roster plan and the programs ability to keep winning the kind of battles that matter most on the trail. [Read more 🡒]