Ohio State heads to Bloomington as a 4.5-point favorite for next Saturday’s Big Noon showdown with Indiana, a line that says plenty about how oddsmakers see this top-10 matchup.
The Buckeyes are No. 5 in the current setup, with Indiana sitting at No. 7 pending rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook also set the total at 50.5, a number that points to a game in the low-to-mid 20s for each side rather than a shootout. If that holds, something in the neighborhood of 28-23 would fit the market’s expectation.
Both teams arrive with a little bit of baggage from Saturday. Ohio State handled Maryland 45-16, but it was messy at times in the rain and never felt clean from start to finish. Indiana, meanwhile, had to dig out of a hole in Lincoln before escaping Nebraska 20-17 on the road.
For the Buckeyes, the win moved them to 5-1 overall and 3-0 in Big Ten play. Julian Sayin threw four touchdown passes, Jeremiah Smith caught two of them, and Bo Jackson scored twice on the ground. Just as important, Ryan Day was able to buy more recovery time for several injured starters before the schedule tightens up.
Still, the afternoon was not without frustration. The weather, the youth in spots, and the sloppiness that came with both showed up in the form of penalties and turnovers, and Day was clearly not thrilled even with the final score looking comfortable.
Indiana had a much shakier day. The Hoosiers were down 17-6 with a little more than 12 minutes left before quarterback Josh Hoover found wide receiver Nick Marsh for two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including the winner, to pull out the 20-17 victory.
Curt Cignetti’s team is still unbeaten at 6-0, but the last two weeks have shown a few more cracks than the perfect record suggests. Indiana needed a late comeback against Nebraska after nearly getting stunned by Northwestern in a 29-23 scare two weeks earlier.
From a betting standpoint, Ohio State has been the steadier team. The Buckeyes are 4-2 against the spread this season, covering against Ball State, Texas, Kent State, and Iowa before coming up short against Illinois and Maryland. Their 29-point win over the Terrapins missed the 31.5-point spread, though the 61 combined points did clear the 56.5 total, moving Ohio State to 4-2 to the over.
Indiana’s numbers tell a different story. Despite being unbeaten, the Hoosiers are only 1-5 ATS this fall, with their 32-point win over Rutgers their lone cover.
They were 8.5-point favorites against Nebraska and won by three, which means that comeback likely left some backers unhappy. The Hoosiers are 3-3 to the over, and Saturday’s 37 total points stayed well under the 48.5 projection.
The history between these two programs is heavily tilted toward Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the all-time series 81-13-5, and Indiana had not beaten Ohio State since 1988 before last December’s breakthrough.
That was the game that snapped Ohio State’s 30-game winning streak in the series, as Indiana took the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game 13-10 and denied the Buckeyes a conference title. Indiana went on to win the national championship, while Ohio State’s season ended with a College Football Playoff loss to Miami.
Now Ohio State gets its first shot at payback, and it comes in a much tougher setting than last year’s neutral-site meeting in Indianapolis.
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Ohio State Freshman RBs Shrinking Role Now Carries A Bigger Concern
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Ohio State Now Gets The Undefeated Indiana Showdown Everyone Feared
Indiana did not make things easy on itself at Nebraska, but the defending national champions did what winning teams do and found a way to stay perfect. Josh Hoover delivered the biggest throws of the night, hitting Nick Marsh for two fourth-quarter touchdowns after Nebraska had briefly threatened to spoil the evening with a late Anthony Colandrea scoring run. The result kept Indianas win streak rolling and preserved the unbeaten record that has made every week feel like a test.
Now comes the game Ohio State has had circled for some time, the one that will tell a lot about how real this Indiana run is. The Hoosiers head into that matchup still unbeaten, still carrying the pressure that comes with being the champs, and still looking like a team that can survive ugly stretches and win anyway. For the Buckeyes, it is the kind of showdown that brings the stakes up fast, especially with Indiana arriving in Columbus with momentum and no blemishes. [Read more 🡒]