Ohio State Buckeyes Face Steep Climb Toward NCAA Tournament Berth
The Ohio State Buckeyes men’s basketball team got a much-needed boost this week-but the road to March is still anything but smooth.
It started with a gritty win over USC on Wednesday night, a game that showed flashes of the potential this team has been trying to tap into all season. Then came some unexpected help: Northwestern’s NET ranking jumped to 73 on Thursday, retroactively turning Ohio State’s December win over the Wildcats into a Quad 1 victory. In a season where every résumé-building win matters, that shift is more than just a stat-it's a lifeline.
Let’s be clear: this is a team still fighting from the outside looking in. That December 6 win over Northwestern-an 86-82 result-is now the most valuable line on the Buckeyes’ tournament résumé.
The twist? Northwestern is currently 10-15 overall, with a 2-11 record in Big Ten play, sitting at the bottom of the conference standings.
They’ve dropped three straight, including a 40-point blowout loss to Illinois, a six-point stumble against Iowa, and a 12-point defeat at the hands of Michigan.
So yes, Ohio State’s best win is against a struggling team. But thanks to the NET bump, it carries more weight than it did just a few days ago.
That said, the numbers don’t lie: the Buckeyes are 1-7 in Quad 1 games this season. According to ESPN’s Bracketology, they’re currently projected as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament field. That’s a precarious position, and everyone in Columbus knows it-including head coach Jake Diebler.
Diebler is coaching under pressure. Athletic Director Ross Bjork has made it clear that the expectation is to make the tournament. That’s the standard at Ohio State, and Diebler’s squad still has time to meet it-but the margin for error is razor-thin.
The Buckeyes have seven games left on the regular-season schedule, and five of them are against Quad 1 opponents. The other two fall into the Quad 2 category. Six of those seven games come against Big Ten foes, which means every night is a battle.
Three of those remaining Quad 1 matchups are against ranked teams, starting with No. 15 Virginia this weekend.
That’s followed by a tough road trip to face No. 10 Michigan State, and then a home clash with No.
13 Purdue. Those are the kind of games that define a season-and determine whether you're dancing in March or watching from home.
For Ohio State to have a real shot at making the tournament, the math is straightforward but daunting. They likely need to go 2-1 in those ranked games and finish 3-2 overall in Quad 1 matchups down the stretch. That means they also can’t afford any slip-ups against Wisconsin or Penn State, their two remaining Quad 2 opponents.
If they go 5-2 over their final stretch, they’d finish the regular season at 21-10. Even then, their tournament hopes wouldn’t be locked in. But it would give them a fighting chance heading into the Big Ten Tournament-where a couple more wins could seal the deal.
The Buckeyes have the opportunity. Now it’s about execution.
The margin for error is slim, the stakes are high, and every possession from here on out matters. The next few weeks will define this team-and possibly the future of the program under Diebler.