Ohio State enters Week 6 as a massive favorite, and that’s only part of a slate loaded with ranked matchups, road tests and a few spreads that look ready to get tested.
Last week finished at 8-6 against the spread, with a 2-4 mark in national games and a 6-2 record in Big Ten action. It wasn’t a perfect weekend, but the ledger still ended above .500, and Ohio State’s win and cover - plus Michigan’s loss - made the rest of Saturday night feel like a bonus.
The national board opens with UCF traveling to No. 18 Oklahoma State as a 7.5-point underdog at noon ET on ESPN2.
Oklahoma State’s season has already taken a strange path, starting with a loss to Tulsa before the Cowboys bounced back by shocking Oregon. Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker have Oklahoma State thinking about the College Football Playoff, while Scott Frost’s UCF team comes in after a competitive effort against Houston.
The Knights led 17-14 going into the fourth quarter, but the issue remains the same: not enough offense to make real noise in the Big 12. A second straight road game against a Cowboys team coming off a bye looks like a tough ask, especially with Oklahoma State unlikely to waste the red-zone mistakes Houston allowed last week.
The Red River Rivalry follows, and this one has Texas laying 7.5 points against Oklahoma at noon ET on ABC. The Sooners have been a mess, and the bye week doesn’t seem like a cure-all.
Oklahoma has scored more than 14 points only once, in the season-opening win over UTEP. Texas also had last week off after surviving Tennessee in Knoxville, though the Longhorns, despite being No. 1, still don’t quite look like a team that’s built to win it all.
Their win over Ohio State has the feel of a game the Buckeyes let slip in the second half. Oklahoma may have needed the break, but there isn’t much confidence that it solves the deeper problems, and Brent Venables doesn’t inspire much trust here.
Texas wins by double digits.
Texas 24, Oklahoma 10
The other marquee national game puts No. 2 Georgia against No.
6 Alabama with the Crimson Tide favored by 1.5 points at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama looks much more like the version fans grew used to under Nick Saban, though the schedule has been soft and much of the credit belongs to quarterback Keelon Russell. The defense is still harder to judge.
Georgia, meanwhile, has rolled through five games without being seriously pushed, winning each by at least 24 points. Gunner Stockton has thrown 13 touchdown passes, four different running backs have topped 100 rushing yards, and the defense has the look of a nasty unit.
Even if Alabama has the more explosive offense, Georgia feels like the more complete team, with the better coaching and the stronger running game. If the weather turns rainy in Tuscaloosa with remnants of the hurricane affecting the game, that only tilts things further toward the Bulldogs.
In the Big Ten, No. 7 Indiana visits Nebraska as a 7.5-point favorite at noon ET on FOX.
Indiana’s résumé still leaves plenty of questions, even as the defending national champions. Northwestern is the only opponent with a pulse that the Hoosiers have faced, and the Wildcats nearly pulled off a stunning comeback in Bloomington a couple weeks ago.
Nebraska’s schedule has been soft too, but this feels like the kind of game where Matt Rhule can make a statement if the Cornhuskers are ready to turn the corner. Still, Nebraska has a habit of losing close ones, and this looks like another one that slips away.
No. 21 UCLA heads to No.
13 Oregon in what stands as the best Big Ten game of the week, with the Ducks favored by 11.5 points at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
UCLA head coach Bob Chesney returns to Eugene after taking James Madison to the College Football Playoff and a first-round matchup with Oregon. The Bruins have been one of the country’s most improved teams, and their rushing attack is the key number in this matchup: 7.0 yards per carry.
Oregon still has questions after losing at Oklahoma State, and quarterback Dante Moore was injured last time out against USC after taking a vicious hit. If Moore can’t go, Dylan Raiola provides experience behind center.
UCLA may not win outright, but if it controls the clock, it should be in position to cover.
Maryland rounds out the featured Big Ten card with a trip to No. 5 Ohio State, where the Buckeyes are 34.5-point favorites at 4:15 p.m.
ET on BTN. Ohio State has never lost to Maryland, winning all nine previous meetings, and under Ryan Day the Buckeyes have outscored the Terrapins 219-78.
The question here is whether Maryland or Jeremiah Smith scores more points; Smith is coming off back-to-back 200-yard receiving games and has six touchdowns in wins over Illinois and Iowa. There’s always a little concern about Ohio State easing off too early, but Maryland has been so bad that trusting the Terrapins to cover is a stretch.
They’ve allowed 102 points over their last two games, and Mike Locksley’s job security feels increasingly shaky.
Rapid Fire Picks
National
BYU 27, Iowa State 14
Missouri 34, Texas A&M 24
Pitt 28, North Carolina 20
Ole Miss 38, Vanderbilt 23
LSU 34, Kentucky 20
B1G
Iowa 24, Washington 17
Northwestern 41, Ball State 10
Illinois 23, Michigan State 13
USC 31, Penn State 28
Minnesota 27, Purdue 20
In Other News...
Simeon Caldwell Is Giving Ohio States Secondary A New Decision To Make
Simeon Caldwell arrived at Ohio State with the kind of preseason expectations that usually keep a freshman safety in the background, but his early work has pushed him into a more meaningful spot in the Buckeyes secondary. He has seen the field in multiple games already, and his usage has grown as the coaching staff has continued to trust him more in the defensive rotation. The staffs interest in him has only sharpened because he brings versatility to a room that already has plenty of competition.
Caldwells most notable opportunities have come in expanded snaps against Iowa, where he held up well in coverage and showed he can tackle in space. His role has been growing in nickel and dime packages, the kind of subpackages that demand safeties who can handle tight ends and bigger receivers without sacrificing too much on the back end. For Ohio State, that kind of flexibility gives the defense another option to sort through, and it could keep changing how the secondary is deployed from week to week. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Freshmen Suddenly Have A Real Chance To Break Through
Ryan Days latest update on Ohio States young wide receivers gave a clearer picture of where the room stands heading into Maryland. Freshmen Chris Henry Jr. and Brock Boyd have been making progress, and Day said both have shown the kind of confidence that can earn more trust in the passing game. With the Buckeyes still sorting through their receiver rotation, the door is at least a little more open for the first-year players to carve out snaps.
The timing matters because Ohio State may need extra help at the position, and the staff has already been looking for more ways to spread the field. That creates a real opening for Henry and Boyd to get involved in a game that could test the depth chart a little more than expected, while Kyle Parker is also positioned to enter the mix after missing the early part of the season. The next step is whether those practice flashes turn into actual game reps when the Buckeyes line up against Maryland. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Has A Few Injury Questions At The Worst Time
Ohio States first availability report for the Maryland game brought a few expected bumps, but the overall picture was still fairly manageable. The Buckeyes entered the week with several players either out or uncertain, yet the list also suggested the roster is generally in good shape heading into the matchup.
The biggest concern for the offense is the status of wide receivers Devin McCuin and Brandon Inniss, both of whom were listed as questionable. On the other side of the ball, safety Leroy Roker III was ruled out, leaving Ohio State to sort through a handful of late-week injury questions at a time when depth and stability matter even more. [Read more 🡒]