Ryan Day has never taken an Ohio State team into a three-loss season, but the 2026 slate is going to make him earn that streak. The Buckeyes are staring at one of the nastiest schedules in the country, with six AP Preseason Top 25 teams on the docket and three of them - Oregon, Texas and Indiana - sitting in the top 10.
With the season just 16 days away, the early read on this schedule is simple: there are no freebies once the Buckeyes get rolling.
The opener against Ball State looks like the kind of game Ohio State usually uses to settle in. In the Day era, the Buckeyes have faced six MAC opponents and blasted them 357-48.
They have topped 50 points in five of those six meetings, with the lone exception coming against an Ohio team last season that finished inside the top 50 in scoring defense. Against a Ball State team projected near the bottom of the MAC, this should be a smooth first test for the new starters and for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.
The first real heavyweight swing comes quickly with Texas, and this one feels like a true coin flip. Ohio State has won the last two meetings, and Day has already figured out how to get past Steve Sarkisian twice.
Even so, the Longhorns bring a top-five profile, and there is still plenty of belief that Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are the two best players on the field. That edge is why the Buckeyes can grind out another win here.
Kent State is the next stop, and while the Golden Flashes are projected a little higher than Ball State in the MAC, they still sit in the lower half of the league. Dru Deshields should be able to put together a couple scoring drives and make some plays, but this still points toward another comfortable Ohio State win. If the margin is a little less dramatic, that can be chalked up to the Texas game hanging over the week before.
Illinois showed last season how quickly a supposed early test can turn into a comfortable afternoon for Ohio State. The Buckeyes were facing a ranked No.
17 Illinois team that had a sleeper buzz around the country, and they still rolled to a 34-16 win without ever really feeling pressure. This year’s version of Illinois has portal talent but not much continuity, which makes this look like another game the Buckeyes should control from the start in The Shoe.
Iowa has the feel of the classic trap spot. Kirk Ferentz always makes life difficult, and Ohio State’s last trip to Iowa ended in one of the worst losses the program has had in the last decade.
Still, the talent gap is obvious. The Hawkeyes should drag the game into the mud and take away the explosives, but the Buckeyes should lean on their defense and survive in a gritty one.
Maryland comes next after the Terrapins’ two down years, and there is reason to think they will be better. Malik Washington has shown enough flashes to suggest he can handle the quarterback spot, and the defense should take a step forward too.
Even so, the roster still does not have the kind of firepower needed to threaten Ohio State at home. The Terrapins may make the Buckeyes throw more than they want, but Julian Sayin should still put together a big day, with freshman Chris Henry Jr. also in line for a possible breakout.
Then comes the most dangerous game on the schedule: Indiana. The Hoosiers kept plenty of talent from their national championship team a season ago and added heavily in the transfer portal, which makes this one feel like an instant classic in a growing rivalry.
The catch for Ohio State is the setting - Bloomington is a tough place to walk into and leave with a win. If the Buckeyes protect Sayin and finish their chances, they can absolutely take it, but Curt Cignetti has already built something strong enough at home to make this a hard one to call.
The trip to USC looks like one of the most entertaining games of the year. Jayden Maiava returns as one of college football’s most prolific passers, and Lincoln Riley’s offense should again rank among the nation’s best.
But Riley has not consistently delivered in these showcase matchups, and Ohio State’s offense should do just enough to get through. Jeremiah Smith could have one of his biggest outings of the season, and the Buckeye running backs could pile up around 150 rushing yards in what should be a high-level shootout in Los Angeles.
After that comes the monster in Columbus: Oregon, the preseason No. 2 team in the country. It is the last game in the toughest stretch on the schedule, and it has the makings of one of the biggest matchups of the college football season.
Oregon’s quarterback and Sayin are both expected to be first-round NFL draft picks next April, which only adds to the buzz. The game should echo the one in Oregon two years ago, only with the result flipped.
Both offenses have the talent to light it up, with Smith and Evan Stewart in the spotlight, but the Buckeyes are projected to get the late stop and escape 2-1 from the brutal stretch.
Northwestern arrives after that with a different kind of problem. The Wildcats, now led by former Ohio State playcaller Chip Kelly on offense, are physical enough to make this one uncomfortable, especially after such a taxing matchup with Oregon.
Robert Fitzgerald gives Northwestern a real chance to force turnovers, and Ohio State’s ground game could sputter some. Still, the Buckeyes should have enough to get through and learn a few lessons before the final two games.
Nebraska is the rebound game before The Game. Matt Rhule has pieces on both sides that can make it interesting, even with quarterback Dylan Raiola gone in the transfer portal.
The difference should come up front. If Ohio State controls the offensive and defensive lines, it can get the run game moving and put pressure on new Nebraska quarterback Anthony Colandrea.
That should let the Buckeyes pull away early and carry momentum into the season finale.
And then comes Michigan, with new head coach Kyle Whittingham and returning quarterback Bryce Underwood already trying to play down the rivalry. That might not be the smartest approach after Ohio State controlled all three phases in Ann Arbor last season. The Buckeyes should attack the middle of the field, where Michigan’s linebackers are young, and the secondary should again have the upper hand against Underwood and finish the year with another double-digit-win season.
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