Ohio State returns home Saturday with the numbers leaning hard in its favor, and the latest data-driven outlook doesn’t leave much mystery about where the market stands.
The Buckeyes host Maryland on October 10, 2026, with kickoff set for 4:15 p.m. EST on the Big Ten Network.
Ohio State is coming off a 31-14 road win over Iowa and sits at 4-1. Maryland enters at 2-3 and is dealing with back-to-back blowout losses.
Injury updates are part of the picture, too. Maryland has CB Jamare Glasker listed as doubtful, while OT Rahtrel Perry and CB Amari Jackson are questionable is probable. Ohio State is expected to be mostly healthy, though the official status of Phillip Daniels, along with wideouts Devin McCuin and Brandon Inniss, is still pending.
After running new simulations and folding in matchup data, Dimers updated its Maryland-Ohio State prediction. The model ran 10,000 simulations and gave Ohio State a 99.8% chance to win. Maryland checked in at 0.2%.
The same projection points to Ohio State -34.5 covering the spread 51.8% of the time. The over/under sits at 55.5 points, with the model leaning 53.5% toward the over. Dimers’ best bet is Over 55.5 points (53¢).
Its projected final score has Ohio State winning 46-11.
Saturday’s game also lands as the Buckeyes’ last home game before they hit the road for two tough matchups against No. 7 Indiana and No.
19 USC over the next three weeks. Maryland, meanwhile, is 2-3 with three straight losses, and there’s plenty of doubt surrounding head coach Mike Locksley’s future.
Polymarket’s current outlook matches the lopsided feel of the matchup. The market lists Ohio State at 99.8% and Maryland at 0.2% in win probability.
All of the projections cited are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations and were accurate at the time of publication.
In Other News...
Former Ohio State Coach Brian Hartline Just Took A Brutal First Step Back
Brian Hartlines first months at South Florida had gone smoothly enough, with the former Ohio State offensive coordinator off to a 4-1 start before a stumble at UTSA snapped the momentum. The trip also came with a side note that got plenty of attention, after Hartline made comments about the noise inside the opponents stadium and then had those remarks revisited in a very public way once the game was over.
From Ohio States perspective, Hartlines next chapter is still part of the larger coaching tree story, but the Buckeyes have their own issues to sort out as the schedule rolls on. The offense has had trouble getting the rushing game where it needs to be, and while Hartline is now trying to settle in as a head coach, his rough first step back served as another reminder that the margins get small fast once conference and nonconference tests start to pile up. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio States Elite Passing Game Is Hiding A Bigger Running Back Issue
Ohio States passing game has been humming along at a level few teams in the country can match, but the ground game is carrying a very different kind of conversation. The Buckeyes sit 81st in rushing yards per attempt, a ranking that stands out for a team with this much offensive firepower and one that has had to lean on a rotating backfield rather than finding a clear weekly answer.
The workload has bounced among Ja'Kobi Jackson, Bo Jackson and Isaiah West, with true freshman Legend Bey also part of the early mix. Beys limited role has drawn attention because of questions around why his touches have thinned out, and while there has been speculation about professionalism concerns, nothing has been officially confirmed. For a team built to pressure defenses in every way, the bigger issue may be less about who is getting the carries and more about whether Ohio State has settled on the right one. [Read more 🡒]
Maryland Brings Coaching Drama And A Defense Ohio State Can Exploit
Maryland arrives with plenty of noise around the program, and not much of it has anything to do with what happens between the lines. The uncertainty around Mike Locksleys future has hung over the Terps for a while now, with the athletic director potentially waiting until after the bye week to make a call, and that backdrop only adds to the sense that Ohio State is catching Maryland at a tense moment. At the same time, the offensive side has slipped, with Malik Washingtons play trending down and the Terps searching for steadier footing.
There is still enough on the defensive front to make Maryland worth studying, especially along the line, where a few key pieces can flash and disrupt a game if the rest of the unit holds together. The problem, as Michael Howes pointed out, is that the tackling has not been dependable enough, and those misses have repeatedly undercut the defense. For Ohio State, that creates a familiar sort of opportunity, one that starts with pressure up front and can quickly turn into a longer afternoon for a defense already carrying too much uncertainty. [Read more 🡒]