Ohio State is a 9.5-point favorite over Oregon heading into next Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff, but this matchup looks a lot different than it did in the preseason.
What once had the feel of a Big Ten title game and College Football Playoff preview has turned into a meeting of two teams trying to steady themselves. Ohio State still has a path to the Big Ten Championship and the playoff, but after an embarrassing 30-18 loss to USC, the Buckeyes can’t afford another slip.
At 6-2 overall and 4-1 in conference play, Ohio State still has Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska on the road and Michigan left on the schedule. None of those games looks simple, especially if the Buckeyes keep playing the way they did against the Trojans.
The issues have become familiar under Ryan Day: trouble finishing drives in the red zone, special teams mistakes, personnel decisions that don’t quite land and too many errors in the small moments that decide games. The roster has changed, as have many of the coaches, but the same problems keep showing up, even with a slightly less talented group than in past seasons.
Still, Ohio State has Jeremiah Smith, and that alone gives the Buckeyes a weapon they can build around if they use him right. Luke Fahey was solid in his first career start, Bo Jackson ran for 121 yards against USC, and the defense gave up just one second-half touchdown to the Trojans, even if the way that score came was hardly encouraging.
Oregon arrives in a far worse spot. The Ducks opened the 2026 season as a popular national championship pick, but that dream is all but gone unless they pull off a major late surge and get help elsewhere.
They fell 39-31 to Oklahoma State in Week 2, then lost starting quarterback Dante Moore in the Sept. 26 game against USC, and he will not return this season. Since then, Dan Lanning’s team has lost to UCLA and Illinois, and it barely escaped Northwestern this weekend.
There is plenty on the line for both teams. Oregon needs a win to keep even a faint College Football Playoff hope alive, while another Ohio State loss could send the Buckeyes’ season off the rails. The Ducks are mostly in spoiler mode now, but with the playoff picture as open as it is, there is still a chance for something bigger if things break right.
A loss would leave Ohio State at 6-5 over its last 11 games, a stunning number for a program that won the national title two years ago. If Day loses at home, it would be the first time he has dropped more than two regular-season games in a season at Ohio State, and the pressure around him would rise fast.
In Other News...
Ohio States Bigger Problem In Los Angeles Was Never The Freshman QB
Ohio States trip to Los Angeles quickly became less about a true freshman quarterback making his first real imprint and more about a team that kept tripping over its own mistakes. Luke Fahey did enough to keep the offense moving in the first half, completing 8 of 15 passes for 86 yards, and the coaching staff clearly trusted him to handle the job despite his inexperience. But by halftime, USC had built a 20-6 lead, and the bigger issues were showing up everywhere else.
Missed tackles, penalties, special teams problems and defensive miscommunications all helped put Ohio State in a hole before the game could settle in. Fahey was not the reason the Buckeyes were chasing the scoreboard, and the way the first half unfolded made that plain. The more pressing concern for Ohio State was how many different areas were breaking down at once, leaving the freshman quarterback to absorb blame he never really owned. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Than One Road Loss
A road loss in Los Angeles already had Ohio State dealing with the usual fallout from a stumble away from home, but the bigger issue was how USC controlled the game from start to finish. The Trojans held the No. 2 Buckeyes to one touchdown, and Ohio State never found much rhythm with backup quarterback Luke Fahey under constant pressure from a USC defense that stacked up tackles for loss and sacks.
The Buckeyes also had no answer for the explosive play that tilted the night, with Mark Bowman ripping off a 70-yard catch-and-run that helped put USC in position to finish the job. It was a statement win for Lincoln Riley, his first top-five victory with the Trojans, and for Ohio State it leaves a lot more to sort through than just the final score. [Read more 🡒]
Lincoln Riley Added More Fuel To Ohio States Ugly Night
USCs 30-18 win over Ohio State was already the kind of result that left a mark, but Lincoln Riley added another layer to the night in the aftermath. In his postgame press conference, the Trojans coach leaned into the idea that the satisfaction came from inside the building, not from outside approval, a fitting tone after a victory that sent Ohio State back to Columbus with plenty to sort through.
The scene around the tunnel at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum was less polished. Riley and his family ran into a bottleneck on the way out, and the moment escalated into a verbal exchange in which Riley reportedly directed profanity at Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork and other staff members. Former Buckeye Maurice Clarett stepped in to try to calm things down, a reminder that even after the final whistle, the emotions from a game like this can linger well beyond the field. [Read more 🡒]