Three years into the Big Ten’s new look, Ohio State and USC are finally meeting as league opponents, and the matchup arrives with a little bit of everything baked in. The Buckeyes are heading west for a game that puts a new quarterback in the spotlight, while USC is trying to keep its College Football Playoff hopes from slipping away.
It’s the first time these two heavyweights have lined up as conference foes. Their last meeting came in the 2017 Cotton Bowl, which Ohio State won, and their most recent regular-season series ended with the Trojans taking both games.
The line for this one sits at 6.5 points with a 51.5 over/under, and our staff offered up a pair of score picks with those numbers in mind.
Stephen Means likes Ohio State 27, USC 13. He said that if Julian Sayin were available on Saturday, he would have backed the Buckeyes by more than 14 points. Instead, he’s leaning on what Matt Patricia has built on defense over the last month and trusting Arthur Smith to shape a plan that gets the most out of the offense without its starting quarterback.
He also pointed to Jeremiah Smith, calling out that he’s still healthy. On the other side, Means said he doesn’t trust USC in a “gotta have it” spot, doesn’t trust a Lincoln Riley defense to hold up for four quarters, and doesn’t think the Trojans have much fight left.
“That’s enough to win by two touchdowns no matter who’s playing quarterback.”
Means is now 6-1 straight up and against the spread, with a 4-3 over/under mark and 220 tokens left.
Stefan Krajisnik sees a slightly higher-scoring version of the same outcome, taking Ohio State 31, USC 14. He framed the game around the idea of a rally, with the Buckeyes trying to band together around a first-time starting quarterback and coach Ryan Day pushing everyone - receivers, running backs, defensive players and fans - to do their part.
USC, in his view, is in its own rally attempt, with a loss threatening to wipe out its playoff path and Riley facing heat of his own. Krajisnik said he expects the Trojans to make it interesting early, but once Ohio State lands a shot, he doesn’t believe USC will answer well.
Krajisnik is 5-2 against the spread and has 125 tokens remaining.
In Other News...
Ohio State Just Got Troubling News Before USC's Passing Test
Ohio States secondary took a hit this week as Jay Timmons was downgraded from questionable to doubtful ahead of the matchup with USC. The Buckeyes have leaned on Timmons for several critical plays this season, and his status now casts a shadow over a defense that is already bracing for a major passing challenge.
If Timmons cannot go, Ohio State is expected to turn to Jermaine Matthews Jr. and Cam Calhoun to help fill the void. Against a Trojans offense that should test the back end early and often, the Buckeyes may have to adjust on the fly without one of their more reliable defensive backs. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Tavien St. Clair Question Fans Feared
Tavien St. Clair was supposed to be part of Ohio States long-term answer at quarterback, but the picture has shifted in a hurry. With true freshman Luke Fahey stepping in for the injured Julian Sayin, St. Clair is now working as the backup, a development that has changed the conversation around the room and around his place in the program.
For a player once viewed as the future at the position, the move naturally raises bigger questions about what comes next. Ohio State still has time to sort through the quarterback depth chart, and there are several possible paths ahead, but nothing has been settled yet, leaving St. Clairs status one of the more intriguing storylines to watch. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Suddenly Has A Bigger Problem Than One Road Loss
The loss at USC was jarring enough on its own, but the bigger concern for Ohio State may be what it revealed about the Buckeyes offense away from home. With backup quarterback Luke Fahey making the start in Los Angeles, Ohio State managed only one touchdown while USCs defense spent much of the night in the backfield, piling up tackles for loss and sacks and making every drive feel like a grind.
USC also delivered the kind of explosive play that can flip a marquee game in a hurry, with Mark Bowmans 70-yard catch-and-run helping the Trojans pull away in a 30-18 win over the No. 2 Buckeyes. For Lincoln Riley, it was his first top-five victory with USC, and for Ohio State it leaves a far more uncomfortable question than the final score: whether this was just a bad road night or a sign of a deeper issue the Buckeyes have to solve fast. [Read more 🡒]