Ohio State comes home Saturday with its season hanging in the balance, and Oregon is the team standing in the way.
The Buckeyes are 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten, while the Ducks arrive in Columbus at 5-3 and 3-2 in conference play. What looked like a heavyweight showdown back in the preseason has turned into a survival game for both sides, with Ohio State trying to keep its conference title hopes and playoff path alive at Ohio Stadium.
The numbers still give the Buckeyes a slight edge. Ohio State is listed as a 7.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 44.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook. The game will be played at Ohio Stadium in Columbus and shown on CBS.
Ohio State’s history under Ryan Day remains strong: 88-14 overall, including an 8-6 mark in postseason bowl games and the CFP. The Buckeyes also own the all-time series against Oregon, 10-2, and won the 2025 Rose Bowl in Pasadena, 41-21.
Still, this is not the same kind of game many expected a few months ago. Ohio State is ranked 12th with four games left, and after last week’s loss at USC, the margin for error is gone. The Buckeyes likely need to run the table to get back to Indianapolis for a second straight season, and a third regular-season loss would do serious damage to their playoff chances.
Oregon hasn’t followed the script either. The Ducks opened the year as the No. 2 team in the country, just behind Ohio State, but three losses have changed the picture. Even so, they are still alive in the Big Ten race if the right breaks come their way, and they showed some fight last week by rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat Northwestern.
For Ohio State, the offensive spotlight will be on true freshman quarterback Luke Fahey. The Buckeyes need more rhythm in the passing game, and Jeremiah Smith is expected to draw most of the targets again. At the same time, there’s a clear need to spread the ball around more to keep Oregon honest.
The defense also has to clean things up after the USC loss. One preview noted that the Buckeyes’ problems last week were more on that side of the ball, and Oregon’s offense has enough talent to make Matt Patricia work all week. Dylan Raiola has also shown a tendency to turn the ball over, which could open the door for pressure and mistakes if Ohio State brings it.
Field position may decide plenty here. Oregon’s defensive front is expected to be a problem, and Fahey will need to get the ball out quickly or create positive yards when the pocket breaks down. Field goals could matter, even if Ohio State wants touchdowns, and the Buckeyes’ red-zone issues are part of the conversation heading into kickoff.
The sense around this one is simple: it could come down to whoever has the ball last. One pick called it a “Desperate Measures” kind of game, and another predicted a tight finish with Ohio State pulling it out. Dylan Buganski went with Ohio State 20, USC 17, while also noting that Oregon’s playmakers Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore can strike at any moment and make the game uncomfortable.
The common thread is clear. Ohio State needs a response, and it needs one now. If the Buckeyes can get Luke Fahey settled, avoid the big defensive breakdowns, and survive a game that feels like it could go down to the final possession, they’ll keep their season alive.
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