Ohio State heads to Bloomington carrying one loss and a lot of pressure, because the meeting with undefeated Indiana looks far tighter than a No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup might suggest.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ model sees a game that could go right down to the wire. It pegs Ohio State as only a 0.2-point favorite, with the Buckeyes given a 51 percent chance to win on the road. The projected final, 26.4-26.2, is basically a coin flip dressed up as a top-five showdown, and Memorial Stadium’s home-field edge nearly wipes out Ohio State’s ranking advantage.
The Buckeyes come in at 5-1 after a 45-16 statement over Maryland, and their offense has rolled to 42.7 points per game behind quarterback Julian Sayin and star receiver Jeremiah Smith. The defense has done its part too, allowing just 13.2 points per game.
Still, there’s a catch. Ohio State’s rushing game took a hit when tailback Ja’Kobi Jackson was ruled out, leaving Bo Jackson as the main option in a ground attack that has already had its stretches of inconsistency.
Indiana hasn’t given many openings all season. The Hoosiers are 6-0, own a 22-game winning streak, and are the defending national champion. They’re putting up 40.2 points per game while allowing only 11.8, and their run defense has been especially nasty, giving up just over 2 yards per carry.
Josh Hoover has been efficient and interception-free. IU’s defense, led by a disruptive front, forced Ohio State into a low-scoring 13-10 Big Ten title game loss last December. This is a genuine top-five clash with major College Football Playoff implications.
Even with all that working against them, Ohio State still has the pieces to edge it. Smith’s explosive-play ability gives the Buckeyes a real weapon on the outside, and their experience in these kinds of games matters. Sayin’s efficiency and the Buckeyes’ defensive front should be enough to create a few negative plays and keep the game tilting their way.
Indiana’s streak, run defense, and crowd make this a dangerous trip. But the projection and the personnel both point to the same place: a one-score finish, with Ohio State just barely getting out of Bloomington alive.
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