If the SEC has its way, this playoff picture could get crowded fast.
A quarter of the way through the 2026 season, the conference is sitting in position to put five teams - maybe even more - into the College Football Playoff field. That would follow last year’s record-setting run, when Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Texas A&M all made it in.
The expectation entering this season was that the move to a nine-game league schedule would trim that number. Instead, the SEC is still looming large, with Texas, Alabama and Georgia all sitting near the top of the national playoff race, while Florida, Ole Miss and LSU remain very much alive.
Mississippi State and Tennessee have also pushed themselves into the conversation.
The new strength-of-conference metric the CFP Selection Committee is using should only help the league when December arrives. Six SEC teams would still be a long shot, but four or five looks very realistic.
At the top of the bracket, Texas holds No. 1 at 4-0 and would be the SEC champion in this projection. The Longhorns still own the best resume in the country thanks to wins over Ohio State and Tennessee, even if the week-to-week feel around the team has been shaky.
Arch Manning has not been as sharp lately, the penalties have been ugly in big moments, and the off-field energy has not been great. Still, the record is undefeated, and that keeps Texas in the top spot.
Ohio State follows at No. 2, also projected as a conference champion at 3-1. The Buckeyes have one of the most talented rosters in the country, and the loss to Texas is easy enough to explain because of the late collapse.
What matters now is surviving what comes next. Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan are all still on the schedule, and Ohio State can absorb one more loss.
More than that, and the path gets messy.
Miami is No. 3 at 4-0 and projected as the ACC champion. The Hurricanes have been overwhelming so far.
Darian Mensah has been operating at a wild pace, with 14 touchdowns and just 12 incompletions through four games, making him the only quarterback in the last 30 years to hit that mark. The next two games will be a better test, with trips to Clemson and Florida State coming up.
Georgia sits at No. 4 and is the highest-ranked SEC team outside of Texas. The Bulldogs have not faced the toughest slate yet, but they have been ruthless in the games they’ve played.
The win over Oklahoma, and what they did to John Mateer, was the kind of statement that makes the rest of the conference pay attention. Georgia was close to jumping Texas here, but the Longhorns’ resume still has the edge.
Notre Dame comes in at No. 5 after another week of handling lesser competition. There is only so much to take from beating up on weak opponents, and that makes the upcoming Oct. 17 trip to BYU feel like the first real checkpoint.
Indiana lands at No. 6 after escaping Northwestern, and the Hoosiers have not looked quite as sharp as the team that rolled through the Big Ten a season ago on the way to an undefeated title run. Curt Cignetti still gets the benefit of the doubt, but the next real measuring stick is Oct. 17 against Ohio State.
Alabama checks in at No. 7, and the Crimson Tide keep looking better for sticking with Keelon Russell instead of chasing a transfer quarterback. Alabama rolled past South Carolina and now heads into a tricky road game at Mississippi State. That matchup also brings a quarterback duel worth watching, with Russell against Kamario Taylor.
Florida is one of the biggest risers, jumping into the bracket at No. 8 after a convincing 52-28 road win over Ole Miss. Jon Sumrall’s influence has been obvious in a short time, and the Gators have made a loud early-season statement. There’s not much time to enjoy it, though, with Missouri next.
Texas Tech lands at No. 9 as the projected Big 12 champion. The Red Raiders have been a little shaky on offense, and it would not be crazy to prefer BYU here, but Texas Tech still owns the conference’s best win over Houston and remains the pick until it slips.
Iowa crashes the field at No. 10 after a stunning last-second win over Michigan. If the Hawkeyes beat Ohio State this weekend, they’d have a real case to make the playoff.
Even with a loss, an 11-1 finish is still on the table, and the rest of the schedule is manageable. The resume might not be loaded with marquee wins, but an 11-1 Big Ten team is going to be hard for the committee to ignore.
Ole Miss falls to No. 11 after that loss at Florida, though the Rebels still have quality wins over LSU and Louisville. They’ve got chances to rebuild the résumé too, with Texas on Oct. 24 and Georgia on Nov. 7 still ahead.
Boise State rounds out the field at No. 12 as the projected Group of Six automatic qualifier. The Broncos handled Western Michigan on the road and remain the favorite for that spot.
Just outside the bracket are LSU, BYU, Oregon, Utah and Mississippi State.
That setup would produce these first-round matchups: Boise State at Notre Dame, Ole Miss at Indiana, Iowa at Alabama, and Texas Tech at Florida.
The quarterfinal picture would then send Texas against the Florida-Texas Tech winner, Ohio State against the Alabama-Iowa winner, Miami against the Indiana-Ole Miss winner, and Georgia against the Notre Dame-Boise State winner.
The semifinal matchups would be played Jan. 14 in Miami and Jan. 15 in New Orleans.
In Other News...
Ohio State Defense Faces A Road Test Iowa Can Expose
Ohio State heads into a ranked road matchup at Iowa with the kind of test that can sharpen a defense or expose a flaw. The Buckeyes will have to deal with a difficult environment and an Iowa offense that leans on quarterback Hank Brown, a productive backfield and a defense led by linebacker Cam Buffington and safety Zach Lutmer, while the bigger worry for Ohio State is whether it can hold up against the run and stay sound in coverage against tight ends.
The Hawkeyes have enough moving parts to make this more than a routine Big Ten trip, especially at home where the crowd can turn every series into a grind. Ohio States defensive front will be under pressure to set the tone early, because if Iowa can keep the Buckeyes guessing and force them to chase the game, this matchup could become a lot more uncomfortable than the rankings suggest. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Defense Isnt In Trouble But One Concern Isnt Going Away
Ohio States defense has spent enough time under the microscope already this fall, and a former Buckeye who has been watching the unit closely sees a group with real room to grow rather than a unit in panic mode. He pointed to the kind of issues that can show up early in a season, including miscommunications and the absence of veteran star power, while still saying defensive coordinator Matt Patricia remains effective in his job. He also gave credit to Illinois quarterback Katin Houser for making the defense work for it.
The bigger takeaway, though, is that the concerns do not appear to be structural in his view. He expects the Buckeyes defense to keep improving and believes it will be good by the end of the season, even if the ceiling may not be quite elite. For a program used to treating every defensive hiccup as a minor crisis, that is a useful reminder that some early-season problems can be real without being fatal. [Read more 🡒]
Ryan Day Sounds Different As Ohio State Heads Into Kinnick
Ryan Day spent part of the week laying out where Ohio State stands as it heads to Kinnick Stadium, and the conversation touched just about every corner of the roster. He gave updates on player availability, pointed to Julian Sayins continued growth, and said the running backs have made progress as the Buckeyes keep sorting out roles for Jeremiah Smith, Khary Wilder and Kyle Parker. It was the kind of check-in that comes with a road game like this, where the details matter and the margin for error tends to shrink.
Kinnick has a way of making even experienced teams feel uneasy, and Day acknowledged the challenge while framing Ohio States current state as a product of steady development since the season began. He also left open a few questions about how the lineup will look once the Buckeyes get through the week, including one involving Legend Bey and how much he can get done in practice before a decision has to be made. [Read more 🡒]