Week 7 brings a short but loaded set of picks for the ranked teams in the AP Poll, and the headliner is a clear one: Ohio State over Indiana.
The Buckeyes look like too much for an Indiana team that’s already survived some shaky moments. The Hoosiers got by Northwestern and Nebraska by thin margins, and the matchup gets a lot tougher with Ohio State’s passing game on the other side.
Indiana’s secondary has been the soft spot, and that’s a dangerous place to be against a Buckeyes offense sitting second in the country in EPA per pass. Indiana, meanwhile, ranks 76th in opponent EPA per pass.
Northwestern is another team that gets the nod in this slate. The Wildcats have been one of the country’s most underrated groups, entering their game against Michigan State ranked 11th in net adjusted EPA per play. They’ve already come close to taking down the defending national champions, and the call here is for Northwestern to handle business.
Missouri is the pick over Ole Miss, and the reason starts with the Rebels’ defense. Ole Miss is only 44th nationally in net adjusted EPA per play, and that ranking is dragged down by a defense that sits 91st in opponent success rate. The run defense has been a problem, and that’s a rough place to be against a Missouri team averaging 5.28 yards per rush.
Kentucky gets the upset call against Oklahoma. The Sooners’ offense has been too inconsistent to trust, ranking 83rd in adjusted EPA per play, while the Wildcats sit 36th in that category. Kentucky looks like the more complete team, and that’s enough to lean toward the Wildcats.
The final pick goes to Notre Dame over Houston. Notre Dame leads the nation in net adjusted EPA per play, and that edge is enough to back the Fighting Irish in a matchup of unbeaten teams. The ground game should be a major factor, with Notre Dame projected to find plenty of success running the ball against Houston’s defense.
In Other News...
Ohio State Freshman Legend Bey Suddenly Has A Real Chance To Earn Trust
Ohio State heads into its matchup with Indiana with the backfield thinned out and the rotation suddenly looking much different than it did a week ago. Ja'Kobi Jackson has been ruled out with an injury, Isaiah West is questionable, and the Buckeyes are also dealing with Austin Siereveld being sidelined, which only adds to the strain on offensive line depth.
For Legend Bey, the timing creates a real opening to do more than just flash in limited duty. The freshman is now positioned for a bigger workload if the Buckeyes need it, and those are the kinds of snaps that can quickly build trust with a coaching staff looking for dependable answers as the season moves forward. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Faces A Defining Indiana Test Ryan Day Can't Shrug Off
The next meeting between Ohio State and Indiana carries more weight than a typical early-season checkpoint. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers have split their two previous matchups, and what has happened around Indiana since then has changed the tenor of the series. A program that was once easy to overlook has turned itself into something much harder to dismiss, giving this matchup a sharper edge than anyone would have expected a few years ago.
For Ohio State, this is the kind of game that can shape how the rest of the season is viewed. With College Football Playoff positioning in the background, the third game in the series feels like more than just another Big Ten date on the schedule. Ryan Day cannot afford to treat it lightly, because the stakes now go well beyond pride and the record between these two teams. [Read more 🡒]
USCs Closing Stretch Could Mean Everything For Indianas Big Ten Hopes
USCs final five games now carry real weight well beyond its own postseason hopes, with a closing stretch that includes ranked opponents and a direct impact on the Big Ten race. The Trojans have Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA among the matchups left on the schedule, a run that could reshape the conference standings as much as it says about USCs place in the playoff conversation.
For Indiana, that makes the trip through USCs late-season gauntlet especially important, because the Hoosiers Big Ten hopes may hinge on how the Trojans handle the Buckeyes and the rest of that closing slate. The schedule also adds another layer to Ohio States path, since each of those games helps define the broader league picture before the committee ever gets involved. [Read more 🡒]