Ohio State Basketball on the Bubble - But Still in Control of Its March Fate
COLUMBUS, Ohio - With Selection Sunday drawing closer, Ohio State finds itself walking the tightrope of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Buckeyes are looking to return to March Madness for the first time since 2022, and while the road ahead is anything but smooth, it’s far from closed.
At 15-8 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play, Ohio State is currently projected as one of the final teams in the NCAA Tournament field. According to Bracket Matrix - which pulls together nearly 100 bracket projections - the Buckeyes are hanging on as an 11-seed, likely headed for a First Four matchup. Forty-two brackets have them in the field, but that grip is slipping.
ESPN’s latest bracketology, courtesy of Joe Lunardi, has Ohio State as the first team out of the tournament following a lopsided 21-point loss to Michigan. That loss, while not damaging from a metrics standpoint - Michigan is the No. 2 team in the country - was still a missed chance to make a statement.
The Quadrant Problem
Here’s the heart of the issue: Ohio State has yet to win a Quadrant 1 game. They’re 0-7 in those matchups - the kind of games that separate bubble teams from tournament locks. On the flip side, the Buckeyes have taken care of business where they’re supposed to, going 4-1 in Quadrant 2 games and avoiding any bad losses in Quadrants 3 or 4.
But when you stack that up against other bubble teams, the lack of a signature win stands out. The four teams currently ahead of Ohio State in ESPN’s bracket - Texas, Miami, New Mexico, and San Diego State - all have at least one Quadrant 1 win on their résumé.
In today’s selection climate, avoiding bad losses is necessary - but not enough. You have to prove you can beat tournament-caliber teams, and right now, Ohio State hasn’t done that.
How the Resume Stacks Up
Analytically, the Buckeyes are tracking toward a 19-12 finish with a 10-10 Big Ten record, according to Bart Torvik’s projections. That would put them squarely in the conversation, but still on the edge.
Historically, teams with similar profiles have had mixed results. Xavier in 2025?
They got in. Wake Forest in 2022?
Left out. Virginia Tech, Syracuse, UCLA, Arizona State - all teams with comparable resumes in recent years, most of whom made the cut.
But Ohio State fans don’t need a history lesson to know this: they’ve been in this exact spot before. In 2008, the Buckeyes had a similar profile - and didn’t get the nod.
The Path Ahead
Here’s the good news: the Buckeyes still control their destiny.
All eight of their remaining regular season games are currently classified as Quadrant 1 or 2 opportunities. That includes a midweek matchup against Southern Cal - a game Ohio State is projected to win. Even the March 4 trip to Penn State, while teetering on the edge of becoming a Quadrant 3 game, still offers a chance to avoid a résumé-damaging loss.
Torvik’s model has the Buckeyes winning four of their final eight. That’s a solid base. But to truly feel safe on Selection Sunday, they’ll likely need to steal a win or two they aren’t expected to get - and continue avoiding any slip-ups.
The margin for error is thin, but the opportunity is real. If Jake Diebler’s squad can rise to the moment, land a couple of marquee wins, and keep the résumé clean, the NCAA Tournament drought could be over. And they won’t need to sweat it out when the brackets are revealed.