College Football Playoff Picture: Chaos Looms as Championship Weekend Arrives
Championship weekend is here, and with it comes the final audition for teams hoping to punch their ticket to the 12-team College Football Playoff. For some programs, the path is clear. For others, it’s a high-stakes waiting game, where every result could flip the postseason picture on its head.
Let’s break down where things stand heading into a weekend that promises drama, debate, and possibly a few surprises.
Big Ten: Calm in the Eye of the Storm
Of all the Power Five conferences, the Big Ten enters the weekend with the least amount of stress. Top-ranked Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are both undefeated, both playoff locks, and both playing for more than just bragging rights in Indianapolis.
This is a true 1-vs-2 showdown - the first of its kind in two seasons - and it’s got everything you’d want in a marquee matchup. Indiana brings an explosive offense led by Heisman front-runner Fernando Mendoza. Ohio State counters with a defense that’s been nothing short of dominant all season, a unit that could end up in the conversation with some of the best in college football history.
Indiana hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1988, but this isn’t the same old Hoosiers program. Under head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana has transformed into a legitimate national power. Last year’s top-five clash ended in a 38-15 loss to Ohio State - their only meeting since Cignetti took over - but this time, the stakes are even higher.
Regardless of who wins, both teams are expected to receive top-four seeds and the coveted first-round bye. Oregon, already locked into the playoff from the Big Ten, rounds out the conference’s trio of contenders.
SEC: Georgia’s In - But What About Bama?
Georgia’s playoff spot is secure no matter what happens in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. But if the Crimson Tide lose - especially after beating Georgia in the regular season - the committee will face a tough call.
Would a three-loss Alabama team still make the cut? That’s the big question.
If they do, they’d join Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas A&M as SEC representatives in the playoff. But don’t count out Texas, Oklahoma, or even Vanderbilt - all three are still in the mix and making their case for a spot.
Big 12: Texas Tech Eyes Top-Four Seed
Texas Tech has a clear path: beat BYU for the second time this season, and a top-four seed is likely theirs. But if BYU pulls off the upset, things get interesting. A Cougars win could open the door for the Big 12 to send two teams to the playoff, depending on how the rest of the weekend shakes out.
ACC: Virginia-Duke Could Impact More Than the ACC
The ACC Championship Game between Virginia and Duke could have ripple effects beyond just the conference title.
If Virginia wins, they’re in. If they lose, they’re out - and suddenly, the door opens for a Group of Five team to sneak in.
James Madison, for instance, will be watching this one closely. If JMU beats Troy in the Sun Belt title game Friday night, they’ll be rooting hard for Duke. A Blue Devils win - despite their five losses - could allow JMU to slide in as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which would be enough to earn a playoff spot.
Even if Virginia loses, the ACC might not be completely shut out. Miami could still be in play for an at-large berth.
Group of Five: One Spot, Plenty of Contenders
The most likely Group of Five playoff spot will go to the winner of the American Athletic Conference title game between North Texas and Tulane.
But don’t overlook the Mountain West. Boise State, despite flying under the radar for much of the season, is back in the mix.
The Broncos are aiming for their third straight Mountain West crown after edging out Utah State in a wild finish last week. Now, they’ll face UNLV in a rematch of their October blowout win.
UNLV had started the year 6-0 under first-year head coach Dan Mullen before Boise State handed them a 56-31 loss. The Rebels will be looking for payback - and possibly a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl.
Notre Dame: Waiting in the Wings
Then there’s Notre Dame - the independent with a complicated résumé. The Irish dropped their first two games of the season to ranked opponents (Miami and Texas A&M) by a combined four points.
Since then? Ten straight wins, and most of them weren’t close.
They’re not playing this weekend, but they’re very much in the playoff picture. The only question: will they host a first-round game or hit the road?
Heisman Watch: Big Ten Showdown Could Decide It
The Heisman Trophy voting window opens Saturday at 5 p.m. ET, and it looks like a three-man quarterback race: Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia. Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love is also expected to be a finalist.
Mendoza enters the weekend as the favorite, but Sayin isn’t far behind. With the two set to face off in the Big Ten title game just hours after voting opens, it could be a true Heisman decider on the field.
By the Numbers
- 4 - Coaches in title games already tied to new jobs or rumored to be moving: Eric Morris (North Texas to Oklahoma State), Jon Sumrall (Tulane to Florida), Bob Chesney (James Madison to UCLA), and Kalani Sitake (BYU, linked to Penn State).
- 7 - Championship games that are rematches from the regular season.
- 19 - National champions that won their conference title game en route to the crown, including 13 SEC winners.
- 21 - Teams with five losses (like Duke) that have played in conference championship games, including 2018 Pitt, 2012 Wisconsin, and 2011 UCLA.
- 2009 - The last time a conference title game featured a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup (Florida vs.
Alabama in the SEC).
Hot Coach Watch: Tyson Helton’s Time?
Every year, championship weekend doubles as a job interview for the next wave of coaching hires. And with the Group of Five coaching carousel already spinning - four American Conference coaches have taken Power Five jobs - the spotlight now turns to Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton.
Helton has quietly built a powerhouse at WKU. In seven seasons (excluding the pandemic year), he’s consistently delivered 8-9 win seasons and bowl appearances. Now, with five AAC jobs open, he looks poised to make the jump to a bigger stage.
What’s at Stake
This weekend is about more than just trophies. It’s about playoff berths, Heisman hopes, coaching futures, and the kind of chaos that makes college football so compelling. With so many moving parts - from idle contenders like Notre Dame to conference title games with playoff implications - expect fireworks from Friday night through Sunday afternoon.
The only thing that’s certain? Somebody’s going to feel heartbreak, and somebody’s going to crash the party.