With the College Football Playoff expanding and the selection debate only set to get louder, the race is already separating into levels. Some teams look as if they can absorb a loss or two and still be fine.
Others have a much thinner margin. And a few are living in that tricky middle ground where one bad weekend can change everything.
Miami sits near the top of that conversation because the path in front of it is so manageable. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Hurricanes don’t win the ACC.
Everybody else in the league has at least one loss, and the only team ahead on Miami’s schedule that looks likely to offer a real challenge is Notre Dame - which, of course, is not a conference game. Even a 10-2 Miami team would likely still make the Playoff, so the Hurricanes would need to lose three of their final six games to miss the CFP.
Ohio State belongs in that same sturdy category, even after the Julian Sayin injury took some shine off the picture. The Buckeyes can still take a hit and remain in good shape.
Like Miami, a 10-2 Ohio State team would be in the Playoff. A trip to USC is coming up, and Northwestern visits in November, but the Buckeyes’ route still looks solid and very workable.
Indiana has earned its place in the mix as well. The Hoosiers fell to Ohio State, but that’s the main blemish.
At 6-1, Indiana has USC coming to Bloomington on November 14th, and that’s the only ranked opponent left on the schedule. That makes for a strong Playoff setup.
Georgia is in a tougher section of the road, but the Bulldogs are still very much in the hunt. They are tied for first in the SEC with Kentucky, and the next stretch is going to tell a lot.
Florida on a neutral field, Ole Miss on the road, and Missouri at home all sit in front of them over the next three games. If Georgia goes 2-1 in that span, it should stay firmly in the Playoff picture.
BYU has also built itself a strong case. The Cougars are the nation’s No. 2 team and are sitting at 6-0, with a schedule that looks manageable.
The one game that stands out is a trip to Utah on November 7th. Otherwise, there isn’t much in the way.
At this stage, BYU would likely need two losses to make its Playoff situation feel shaky.
Texas Tech has emerged as the top non-SEC/non-Big Ten team not already listed, and the Red Raiders have a favorable setup too. They’re 6-0, and the only ranked opponent left is Arizona, which comes to town on Halloween. There could be some hesitation about fitting multiple Big 12 teams into the CFP field, but an 11-1 or 12-0 Texas Tech team would be an obvious choice.
Then there are the teams that can still make noise, but the room for error is shrinking. Alabama has back-to-back losses and needs to steady itself quickly. LSU is the only ranked team left on the schedule, but leaning on a 9-3 resume would be dangerous, even if Alabama did make the CFP at that record a season ago.
Tennessee is in a similar spot, though with a little more breathing room. The Vols have one loss and can probably survive a second, but a third would be a problem. Kentucky and LSU are the two ranked teams remaining, and avoiding a damaging loss at South Carolina this week is a big part of the equation.
Utah’s case comes with another kind of complication. The Utes are 6-0, but the concern is whether three Big 12 teams would be too much for the selection committee to sort through. They still have Houston this week, with BYU and Arizona also ahead, so a 10-2 finish could still leave the conference in a logjam.
Ole Miss is in the same neighborhood. Texas and Georgia are both ahead of the Rebels right now, so 10-2 should be the target. That could be enough with a split, as long as they avoid other miscues.
Kentucky is 6-1 and technically controls its own fate, but the Wildcats’ road is steep. Tennessee, Florida, and Missouri are still out there, and Kentucky has to travel for the first and last of those games. If the Wildcats can keep the total to one loss from here, they could still wind up in the Playoff.
And then there’s the G5 spot, which somebody will eventually claim. James Madison looks like the most likely candidate, though it’s not locked up. It’s one opening they’re all chasing, and if the Dukes slip, another team could jump in front.
UCLA rounds out the list. The Bruins are 6-0 and have only one ranked game left, the season finale against USC.
The question hanging over them is whether they can keep stacking wins with injured quarterback Nico Iamaleava out. These are the teams that can get there, but only if they thread the needle.
In Other News...
Ohio States Bye Week Just Became A Crucial QB Decision
Ohio States bye week has turned into more than a breather. With Julian Sayin dealing with an injury, the Buckeyes are using the open date to sort through their options at quarterback, and that means taking a hard look at freshman Luke Fahey and sophomore Tavien St. Clair as possible replacements if the position remains in flux.
Across the rivalry, Michigan has already made a change of its own, benching Bryce Underwood and moving freshman Tommy Carr into the starting role for the upcoming game against Indiana. The timing only adds to the pressure around Columbus, where the Buckeyes are watching not just their own depth chart but a busy Week 8 slate that could ripple through conference standings and shape the bigger picture in the Big Ten race. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Gave Fans A Classic TBDBITL Moment At The Woody
The Ohio State Marching Band brought a little extra buzz to the Woody Hayes Athletic Center this week, and the timing fit the mood around the program. With the Buckeyes in their bye week, coach Ryan Day shifted the visit there to keep the routine steady during rivalry week, while Jeremiah Smith, Jamir Perez and Earl Little Jr. were among the players who got a turn conducting and performing with the band.
It was the kind of classic TBDBITL moment that reminds everyone how tightly woven the band and football program are in Columbus. The visit also followed a recent high-profile stop for the band at a Twenty One Pilots concert at Ohio Stadium, another sign that Ohio States marching tradition keeps finding fresh ways to show up in the spotlight. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Made A Loud Statement About Its National Pull
Week 7 offered another reminder that Ohio State still sits near the center of the college football TV universe. The Buckeyes matchup with Indiana on FOX topped the national viewership charts, a strong showing that underscores how much attention follows Ohio State whenever it is in a marquee slot, especially against a ranked Big Ten opponent.
The rest of the top ten only reinforced how crowded the sports biggest stages can get, with notable games from the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 all drawing major audiences. Alabama-Tennessee led the SECs weekend numbers, but Ohio States latest television footprint is the kind of data point that speaks to more than one Saturday - it speaks to the programs reach every time it takes the field. [Read more 🡒]