Jeremiah Smith is back on top of the Heisman Trophy odds, and the timing tells you everything about how tight this race has become.
The Ohio State receiver had slipped to second after the Buckeyes’ second loss of the season at USC last Saturday, even after he hauled in 10 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah moved into the lead then, but that didn’t last long.
On Wednesday, reports surfaced that Miami wideout Malachi Toney, who had the third-best odds at the time, will miss the rest of the regular season because of a high ankle sprain that requires tightrope surgery. With that, Smith jumped back ahead of Mensah for first.
It’s a familiar spot for Smith, who spent much of the past month as the favorite. But the path ahead looks different now. He’ll have to keep building his case without his starting quarterback, while Mensah faces the same reality without his top receiver.
Three weeks ago, Smith was the clear favorite. Since then, the market has tightened fast. His odds moved from -215 to -105/-110 two weeks ago, then to +155 this week, according to DraftKings and FanDuel.
Smith’s first game with freshman quarterback Luke Fahey under center offered a little bit of both promise and frustration. Fahey targeted him 14 times and connected enough to keep the production rolling, but Smith also left yards and another touchdown on the table when the throws weren’t there. His 8.3 yards per catch in that game was the fourth-lowest mark of his career.
Fahey said Thursday on The Ryan Day Show, “I just know that I just got to keep getting the ball as much as I can to him - as much as I possibly can," Fahey said on The Ryan Day Show on Thursday.
The bigger picture is simple: if Smith is going to bring a Heisman Trophy back to Columbus, he likely needs Ohio State to win its final four regular-season games, and he needs a freshman quarterback to keep finding him.
Even with the recent dip, the numbers still jump off the page. Through eight games, Smith has 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns. He has more receiving touchdowns than 68 FBS teams.
That production also puts him in a rare lane. Since Michigan’s Desmond Howard won the Heisman in 1991, only one full-time wide receiver has taken home the trophy: Alabama’s DeVonta Smith in 2020. Travis Hunter won it in 2024 while playing both wide receiver and cornerback.
So the comparison is unavoidable. Through eight games, Jeremiah Smith has 62 receptions for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns, while DeVonta Smith had 72 catches for 1,074 yards and 12 touchdowns, plus a rushing score, at the same point in his 2020 season. DeVonta finished that year with 117 catches, 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in 13 games.
For the first time in their seasons, Jeremiah has fallen behind DeVonta’s pace in receiving yards and yards per game, but he still holds the edge in touchdowns and yards per catch. DeVonta was at 134.3 yards per game through eight games; Jeremiah is at 133.4. DeVonta’s yards per catch at that point was 14.9, while Jeremiah’s sits at 17.2.
Mensah remains right in the middle of the race, too. The Miami quarterback has climbed quickly over the last three weeks and now sits second at +165.
Against North Carolina last Saturday, he completed 22 of 29 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns in Miami’s 38-35 win. He has thrown at least three touchdown passes in seven of eight games this season, including three straight.
Through eight games, Mensah has completed 188 of 233 passes, an 80.7% clip, for 2,425 yards, 25 touchdowns and one interception. Miami is undefeated and sits No. 1 in the CFP rankings.
His first game without Toney comes Saturday night at Notre Dame, a matchup that carries major CFP weight and could also shake up the Heisman picture for Mensah and Carr.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is back up to third in the odds at +525 after dropping to fourth following the Irish’s loss at BYU three weeks ago. In Notre Dame’s 35-13 win over Navy last Saturday, Carr went 19 of 29 for 210 yards and two touchdowns.
Troy Smith was the last Buckeye to win the Heisman in 2006. DeVonta Smith was the last full-time wide receiver to win it in 2020. Seven weeks into the season, Jeremiah Smith is still the favorite to end both droughts in 2026, even with questions now hanging over the quarterback situation.
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Jeremiah Smith has already put himself in the center of Ohio States offensive story this season, piling up 62 catches for 1,067 yards and 13 touchdowns while ranking among the national leaders in each category. For the Buckeyes, that production has made him more than just a featured receiver. He has become one of the defining reasons the offense has stayed on track as the team pushes to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Now, with Miamis Malachi Toney sidelined for the rest of the regular season after suffering a high ankle sprain that required surgery, the Heisman conversation around the wide receiver position has shifted again. Smith still has to keep producing in the biggest moments, but the path in front of him looks a little clearer than it did before, and Ohio State will be counting on him to keep turning that opening into something even bigger. [Read more 🡒]
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Freshman edge rusher Luke Wafle pointed to the groups trust and focus as the reason it held firm on the final drive, when Ohio State again pressed into red-zone territory and came away empty. With the bye week here, USC is using the break to keep that same edge in practice and keep its defensive standards from slipping. [Read more 🡒]