Michigan’s first road test arrives with real upset energy, and it’s not the only game on the Week 5 board that could flip expectations.
After a weekend that featured Iowa stunning Michigan, Wisconsin slipping past Penn State, and Northwestern making things uncomfortable for Indiana, the chaos bar is already set high. So here are four bold calls for what comes next in college football.
Start with Florida. The Gators are 4-0, ranked No. 8, fresh off their biggest win in several years, and still two weeks away from a matchup with No.
1 Texas. That makes Saturday at Missouri a classic danger spot, especially with South Carolina looming on Oct.
- Missouri’s defense, by SP+, is the best Florida has seen so far, narrowly ahead of Auburn and well ahead of Ole Miss.
Add in the road setting, and this has the feel of a game where Florida starts slowly, quarterback Aaron Philo throws two interceptions, and running back Jadan Baugh gets held to a season low on the ground. Even so, the Gators survive with a tiebreaking field goal in the final two minutes.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith keeps rolling, too. Against Texas, a defense ranked five spots better than Iowa’s, he put up eight catches for 164 yards and a touchdown, and he barely did anything in the second half.
Iowa limited him to four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown in 2024, but Smith has clearly moved well beyond that stage of his college career. The Hawkeyes are allowing 152 passing yards per game, and Smith should clear that by at least 10%, which means more than 167 yards.
He also adds two touchdowns to push his FBS-leading total to nine.
The TCU-BYU matchup feels like another spot where the market may be too kind to the underdog. TCU’s slide since its Cinderella run in 2022 has been stark: 5-7, then 9-4, then 9-4 with a No. 25 national finish, and now 2-2 with losses to North Carolina and UCF.
The Horned Frogs are only touchdown-ish underdogs, but that number looks off. BYU has already handled Arizona and Colorado State by double digits, quarterback Bear Bachmeier leads the Big 12 in adjusted yards per attempt, and TCU may struggle to move the ball with any consistency.
The call here is a 35-10 BYU win, powered by three takeaways.
And then there’s Michigan at Minnesota, which might be the week’s biggest leap of faith. The case for the Wolverines is obvious enough: Minnesota hasn’t won the FBS’s oldest trophy game since 2014, and the advanced metrics favor Michigan.
But there’s a wrinkle. Michigan still hasn’t played a road game, and last season’s late road opener at Washington ended with the Wolverines being outgained by 142 yards in a 27-17 loss.
Bryce Underwood has also looked far different depending on venue, throwing 10 touchdowns against five interceptions at home but six touchdowns and six interceptions on the road and at neutral sites. That split swings this one toward Minnesota, and the prediction is a 17-14 Golden Gophers win.
In Other News...
Ohio State Just Delivered The Kind Of Road Win Fans Needed
Ohio State went into Kinnick Stadium and delivered the sort of response win its fans had been waiting for, beating Iowa 31-14 and handing the Hawkeyes their first loss of the season. The Buckeyes controlled the game on both sides of the ball, piling up 484 total yards while keeping Iowa to 238 and a paltry 39 rushing yards, which made this feel less like a tense road test and more like a statement about the gap between the two teams.
Jeremiah Smith was at the center of it, turning the trip into one of those performances that travels well beyond the box score. He finished with 11 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns, giving Ohio State a dynamic edge whenever it needed one and helping offset a couple of turnovers forced by the defense. For a team that needed a clean, convincing road result, this was exactly the kind of night it was looking for. [Read more 🡒]
Jeremiah Smith Just Put Ohio State Fans On Notice Again
Jeremiah Smith kept the Buckeyes moving in Iowa City, turning a road test against the Hawkeyes into another showcase for Ohio States passing game. The freshman wideout tied the Ohio State touchdown record while finishing with 11 catches for 206 yards and two scores, a performance that helped push the Buckeyes to a 4-1 start and add another layer to what has already become a must-watch season in Columbus.
Smiths latest breakout only raises the stakes for what comes next, because Ohio State now heads back home to face Maryland with its young star drawing even more attention. For a team that has spent the early part of the season trying to establish its identity, his ability to create production anywhere on the field has become one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes keep looking like a contender. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Earned The Big Ten Spot Fans Wanted Most
Week 5 brought a clearer picture of the Big Ten race, and Ohio State came out of it looking like the conference team fans expected to see at the top. The Buckeyes handled Iowa in a game that carried more weight than a typical early-season road test, adding a quality win to a rsum that is starting to separate from the pack as the league standings and the national picture begin to take shape.
The rankings around them still have plenty of movement left, with Indiana continuing to push forward, Oregon and UCLA drawing attention for different reasons, and Michigan still trying to sort out its own path. But Ohio States recent momentum is the kind that can hold up as October approaches, especially if the Buckeyes keep matching style points with results in the weeks ahead. [Read more 🡒]