David Pollack sees Iowa as capable of hanging around against Ohio State on Saturday, but his final call still leans toward the Buckeyes.
No. 14 Iowa hosts No.
5 Ohio State in Iowa City in the week’s biggest Big Ten matchup, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Ohio State as a 14-point road favorite.
On his “See Ball Get Ball” podcast, Pollack said Iowa can make this interesting only if its offense does enough to avoid putting the defense in an impossible spot.
“I think [Iowa] has a chance because Ohio State's defense is more gettable than they've been, but to me that means Iowa has to have some passing game, a little bit of balance, run it more than they've run it, have success and defensively hold the heck on. Like just hold on, don't give up big plays, make them get in the red zone and kick 3s,” Pollack said.
That’s where Pollack’s breakdown gets sharp. He doesn’t love what he’s seen from Ohio State’s defense, which lost most of its starters from last season, including three of the top 11 picks in the NFL draft. But he also isn’t sure Iowa’s offense can take advantage, even with a run game that has been productive.
“I watched every snap of Ohio State vs. Illinois.
I thought [the Buckeyes'] defense, I think they've got some guys who flash occasionally, but they gave up over 6 yards a carry to Illinois. To give up almost 200 yards rushing, this is what Iowa is, this is who they want to be -- they want to run the football,” Pollack said.
"... Hank Brown, he needs to make a few plays down the field.
They need to be able to open it up a little bit because I know they're going to run it, and I think they can run it at a decent clip."
Iowa comes in ranked 27th nationally in rushing at 215.5 yards per game. Kamari Moulton has led the way with 284 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per carry, while other backs have also chipped in.
The passing game has lagged behind, with the Hawkeyes ranked 87th nationally at 213.5 yards per game through the air. Brown has thrown for 700 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Hawkeyes’ defense remains the backbone. Iowa has allowed the fewest points in college football at 8.0 per game and ranks 10th nationally in total defense at 239.8 yards allowed per game.
Still, the schedule hasn’t yet tested that unit against an offense like Ohio State’s. Iowa has shut out Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa and held down offenses from Iowa State and Michigan.
Ohio State brings two Heisman Trophy candidates into the matchup in 2025 finalist Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith, the star receiver who leads the FBS with 617 receiving yards. Sayin has thrown for 1,206 yards with 12 touchdowns and 1 interception, while Smith has 33 catches and 7 touchdowns.
Smith exploded in last week’s 42-19 win over Illinois in the Buckeyes’ Big Ten opener, finishing with 12 catches for 217 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Pollack, though, wonders whether Ohio State’s run game could be the piece that gives Iowa a path to stay in it. The Buckeyes are averaging 156.75 rushing yards per game, which ranks 76th nationally.
“With Ohio State on the other side, man, is it anybody besides Jeremiah Smith? And here's the thing with Ohio State, can they get that run game going? ... At some point in this season they're going to need to get first downs and punch it in the red zone,” Pollack said.
Even with those questions, Pollack stuck with Ohio State in the end and expected the game to stay within reach of the spread.
“I think this is a phenomenal matchup. I think Iowa is going to keep it close,” he said.
“If you weren't watching last week, Illinois kept it close. Illinois was very much in the game until the very last little bit, but they were still very much in striking distance.
I think this is 27-13 type of a deal.
“I don't think Iowa's offense is good enough. ... It's all about the offense because I think they can hang on long enough, make them kick a few field goals to stay in the game, but the [arrow points toward] Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin.”
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
In Other News...
Ohio State Just Delivered The Kind Of Road Win Fans Needed
Ohio State went into Kinnick Stadium and delivered the sort of response win its fans had been waiting for, beating Iowa 31-14 and handing the Hawkeyes their first loss of the season. The Buckeyes controlled the game on both sides of the ball, piling up 484 total yards while keeping Iowa to 238 and a paltry 39 rushing yards, which made this feel less like a tense road test and more like a statement about the gap between the two teams.
Jeremiah Smith was at the center of it, turning the trip into one of those performances that travels well beyond the box score. He finished with 11 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns, giving Ohio State a dynamic edge whenever it needed one and helping offset a couple of turnovers forced by the defense. For a team that needed a clean, convincing road result, this was exactly the kind of night it was looking for. [Read more 🡒]
Jeremiah Smith Just Put Ohio State Fans On Notice Again
Jeremiah Smith kept the Buckeyes moving in Iowa City, turning a road test against the Hawkeyes into another showcase for Ohio States passing game. The freshman wideout tied the Ohio State touchdown record while finishing with 11 catches for 206 yards and two scores, a performance that helped push the Buckeyes to a 4-1 start and add another layer to what has already become a must-watch season in Columbus.
Smiths latest breakout only raises the stakes for what comes next, because Ohio State now heads back home to face Maryland with its young star drawing even more attention. For a team that has spent the early part of the season trying to establish its identity, his ability to create production anywhere on the field has become one of the biggest reasons the Buckeyes keep looking like a contender. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Just Earned The Big Ten Spot Fans Wanted Most
Week 5 brought a clearer picture of the Big Ten race, and Ohio State came out of it looking like the conference team fans expected to see at the top. The Buckeyes handled Iowa in a game that carried more weight than a typical early-season road test, adding a quality win to a rsum that is starting to separate from the pack as the league standings and the national picture begin to take shape.
The rankings around them still have plenty of movement left, with Indiana continuing to push forward, Oregon and UCLA drawing attention for different reasons, and Michigan still trying to sort out its own path. But Ohio States recent momentum is the kind that can hold up as October approaches, especially if the Buckeyes keep matching style points with results in the weeks ahead. [Read more 🡒]