Greg McElroy is betting on the streak.
With Indiana riding a 22-game winning run into Saturday’s noon ET showdown against Ohio State on Fox, the ESPN analyst is taking the No. 5 Hoosiers to knock off the No.
4 Buckeyes in what figures to be one of the sharpest Big Ten games of the season. McElroy even put a number on it: Indiana 24, Ohio State 23.
“We’re riding the streak,” McElroy said on Always College Football. “We’re taking Indiana to win the game, 24-23.”
For McElroy, the bet starts where big games usually do - up front. He sees Indiana having the edge on both lines of scrimmage, and he thinks that could force Ohio State into a narrower game plan.
“I think Indiana has an advantage along both lines of scrimmage,” McElroy said. “I think they can keep the possession count low enough, and they can make Ohio State’s offense one-dimensional because I think they can stop Ohio State’s run game.”
The numbers back up his argument. Indiana is allowing 2.3 yards per carry, which McElroy noted is a top-four figure nationally.
Ohio State, meanwhile, is averaging 4.3 yards per carry and sits 81st in that category. Texas exposed that soft spot earlier this season in Austin, holding the Buckeyes to 94 rushing yards on 31 carries before putting together 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter.
That same issue has followed Ohio State for years under Ryan Day, at least when the Buckeyes lose the ground game. McElroy pointed to Day’s record in those situations.
“When his team loses the rushing battle, Ryan Day is just 13-12 as an FBS head coach,” McElroy said.
Indiana’s other edge, in McElroy’s view, is keeping the ball clean. Josh Hoover has thrown 129 passes without an interception, and the Hoosiers have only one turnover all season. That matters to McElroy because Curt Cignetti’s teams have been nearly automatic when they protect the football.
“When his team doesn’t turn it over, Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is 29-1 as an FBS head coach,” he said.
The Hoosiers already showed some resilience last weekend in Lincoln. Nebraska limited Turbo Richard and Indiana to a season-low 65 rushing yards and grabbed a 17-6 lead early in the fourth quarter, but Hoover answered with touchdown throws of 75 and 44 yards to Nick Marsh - the second coming on fourth-and-1 - and Indiana escaped with a 20-17 win. Cignetti said Nebraska covered the receiver Indiana expected to target, leaving Marsh open.
That comeback helped keep the defending national champions among college football’s nine remaining undefeated teams. But history is another obstacle for Indiana: the Hoosiers have not beaten Ohio State at home since 1988.
Injuries could end up deciding whether McElroy’s line-of-scrimmage read holds up. Ohio State was missing six players in its 45-16 win over Maryland: Brandon Inniss, Devin McCuin, Phillip Daniels, Austin Siereveld, Christian Alliegro and Jay Timmons.
“I don’t think we’ll get all of those guys back that were on the list, but for sure we’re going to get a good portion of them back for next week,” Day said after the game.
Day added Tuesday that Daniels looks set to return at right tackle after missing four straight games because of an injury suffered against Texas. Gabe VanSickle, who started at right tackle against Maryland, would move back to guard. Day did not give an update on Siereveld, who had been slated to start at right tackle before illness kept him out last week.
Ohio State’s offense still has a major trump card in Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ wide receiver has 48 catches for 916 yards and 11 touchdowns, and his two scores against Maryland pushed his career total to 38, leaving him one behind the Big Ten record. Cignetti called him exactly the kind of player that changes the equation.
“There is no one like him right now playing at this level,” Cignetti said. “He’s a freak. We’re going to have to do a great job on him.”
Indiana has held Smith out of the end zone in both previous meetings, but McElroy also noted a potential opening in the Hoosiers’ secondary. Opponents complete nearly 44% of their deep passes against Indiana, a number that sits in the bottom 30 nationally.
That matters because Julian Sayin has been more than willing to push the ball. He went 13-of-21 for 242 yards and four touchdowns against Maryland and is leading an offense averaging more than 11 yards per attempt. McElroy expects the Buckeyes quarterback to land enough shots to keep this thing tight.
“I think Julian Sayin will hit enough downfield to make sure this thing is really tight,” he said.
The efficiency numbers show just how little separates the teams. ESPN’s ratings have Ohio State at 89.2 and Indiana at 89.1, the fifth- and sixth-best marks in the country. McElroy also pointed out that Ohio State’s pass defense allows fewer than five yards per attempt and that Hoover has looked his most ordinary against man coverage, which is what the Buckeyes play.
If Daniels comes back at right tackle and Ohio State protects Sayin on early downs, Smith gives the Buckeyes a receiver with enough firepower to punch through the exact edge McElroy is giving Indiana. Still, McElroy is sticking with the streak - and with the Hoosiers to make the bigger play when it matters most.
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