Ohio State opens the 2026 season where ESPN’s numbers say it belongs: alone at No. 1.
The Buckeyes sit atop ESPN’s Football Power Index, a model built on data rather than debate. FPI weighs expected points added, coaching changes, recruiting in both the transfer portal and high school ranks, returning starters and historical data, then turns all of that into a single rating.
For Ohio State, that rating comes in at +28.7. In plain English, ESPN’s model says the Buckeyes would be expected to beat an average FBS team by 28 points on a neutral field. Against Michigan State, which checks in at +0.3 in the same system, the projection would be a 28-point Ohio State win.
The numbers keep pointing toward another big year in Columbus. ESPN’s model gives Ohio State the second-highest projected win total in the country at 10.2-2.4, trailing only Notre Dame at 10.7-1.3.
It also gives the Buckeyes a 75 percent chance to reach the playoff.
That projection comes with an important caveat: Ohio State’s schedule is a grind. If the Buckeyes played a slate similar to last season’s, the model would have them running the table. But that is not the setup here, and the path through 2026 looks like a weekly fight.
The expectation is still clear, though. Ohio State has the tools to be dominant again, and the question is whether Ryan Day can get the team peaking at the right time.
The source points to 2024 as an example of that working and 2025 as the opposite. If Day gets that timing right in 2026, the Buckeyes’ January finish could look a lot like their July standing.
In Other News...
Three Former Buckeyes May Regret Leaving Ohio State
A few years after arriving in Ohio States 2022 recruiting class, Air Noland, Caleb Burton III and Jyaire Brown all took the transfer route in search of quicker paths to the field. Noland moved on to South Carolina before landing at Memphis, Burton left for Auburn and later UConn, and Brown has bounced from LSU to UCF and then Southern Miss. For a program that reloads as quickly as Ohio State, the question is less about who left and more about what kind of opportunity they may have walked away from.
The timing makes the story sting a little more for those three former Buckeyes, because the door to playing time in Columbus can open faster than it looks from the outside. Burtons path has already become especially complicated, and Browns journey has taken multiple turns, while Noland is trying to reset again. In hindsight, each move looks like a reminder that leaving Ohio State does not always guarantee a clearer road, and for these three, the better chance might have been the one they passed up. [Read more 🡒]
Bruce Thornton Just Gave Ohio State A Huge NBA Boost
Bruce Thorntons first taste of NBA Summer League was the kind of debut that gets noticed quickly. The former Ohio State guard, now with the Houston Rockets after going in the second round, poured in 27 points and set a rookie scoring mark for a Summer League debut, showing the same poise and shot-making that made him such a steady presence in Columbus.
He did more than score, too, mixing in rebounds, assists and steals while keeping the mistakes to a minimum as Houston handled Denver. For Ohio State, the bigger ripple may come later: Thornton is the first player coached by Jake Diebler to reach the NBA, a milestone that gives the Buckeyes another talking point when they go after future recruits looking for a clear path to the next level. [Read more 🡒]
Ohio State Fans Will Love The Surprising Terry McLaurin Debate
Terry McLaurin has already built the kind of NFL rsum that Ohio State fans can point to with pride, turning himself into one of Washingtons most dependable receivers and stacking up five straight 1,000-yard seasons along the way. The former Buckeye has also made two Pro Bowls and climbed to fifth on the franchises all-time receiving yards list, a steady rise that has made him one of the leagues most respected route runners rather than just another college star who flashed and faded.
Now ESPNs Ben Solak is floating a surprising possibility for 2026, putting McLaurin in breakout territory despite everything he has already accomplished. The idea is less about whether McLaurin is good enough and more about how much room he still has to push his production higher, especially after last season was interrupted by a nagging quad injury that limited him to 10 games. For Buckeyes fans, the intrigue is obvious: one of their own may still have another gear left, and the next chapter could be the most productive one yet. [Read more 🡒]