Ohio State is heading into 2026 with the kind of preseason buzz that usually comes with a target painted squarely on the chest.
The Buckeyes finished 2025 at 12-0 before everything unraveled at the end, dropping their final two games and getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage in both the Big Ten Championship and the Cotton Bowl. That finish has been sitting with them all offseason. Now, though, the conversation has shifted to what this team could be, and ESPN’s FPI is buying in more than anyone else.
Ohio State sits No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI metric before the season begins. The model gives the Buckeyes a 17.2 percent chance to win the national championship and a 28.2 percent chance to reach the national championship game. Right behind them at No. 2 is Texas.
That setup gives Ohio State an early chance to make a statement in Week 2, when it travels to Austin to face the Longhorns. Arch Manning has been drawing plenty of preseason attention again, and the Buckeyes will have a shot to quiet that noise.
There’s a lot for Ohio State to like on offense. Julian Sayin is entering his second season as the starter, and Jeremiah Smith is back for his final year in Columbus.
Even with Carnell Tate now in the NFL, the Buckeyes still look loaded at receiver. That group should make the offense tougher to deal with from the jump.
The defense comes with more questions, but Matt Patricia’s return gives Ohio State plenty of confidence on that side of the ball. ESPN clearly sees enough to put the Buckeyes at the top of the FPI board.
That ranking doesn’t make the path easy. Ohio State will carry a huge target all season, just as it always does.
Texas wants to defend its home field and beat the Buckeyes for the first time in three tries. Inside the Big Ten, USC and Indiana are both lurking as dangerous tests, and Michigan remains a major date even if the program appears to be in rough shape.
It’s a tougher schedule than Ohio State has faced in the last few years.
Still, the numbers like the Buckeyes’ chances. If Ohio State can get to at least 10 wins, it should be in the College Football Playoff with a real shot to chase the title.
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