As we dive into the final stretch before March Madness, the NCAA men's basketball tournament picture is starting to take shape, and CBS Sports has been at the forefront with its innovative bracket projections. With a weekend packed with pivotal matchups, let's break down four key games and explore how they could influence the tournament landscape.
San Diego State at New Mexico
This matchup is a classic "double bubble" scenario, featuring two teams teetering on the edge of at-large candidacy. San Diego State (19-8, 13-4 MWC) holds a crucial tiebreaker over Utah State, while New Mexico (21-7, 12-5) sits just behind. Utah State, already in solid position for an at-large bid, is favored to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament according to our SportsLine prediction model, with a 36% chance.
San Diego State is currently projected to grab the league's autobid, leaving New Mexico just outside the bubble. Both teams need to secure as many wins as possible to strengthen their tournament résumés before potentially facing Utah State in the MWC championship game.
Texas Tech at Iowa State
The NCAA Tournament committee has emphasized the importance of Wins Above Bubble (WAB) in determining seeding. Iowa State currently trails UConn in this metric, sitting at ninth compared to the Huskies' fourth. However, Iowa State has a challenging schedule ahead, including a game at Arizona, which presents an opportunity to close the gap.
If Iowa State can win out, they could potentially surpass UConn in key metrics like Quadrant 1 wins and NET ranking. The Cyclones need a slip from UConn and a flawless finish to bolster their seeding chances.
For Texas Tech, this game is crucial in proving their worth despite the absence of JT Toppin, last year's Big 12 Player of the Year. With upcoming games against BYU and TCU, the Red Raiders have ample opportunities to showcase their depth and resilience.
Purdue at Ohio State and Michigan State at Indiana
In a Big Ten doubleheader, Purdue and Michigan State are jockeying for seed positions between No. 2 and No. 5.
However, the spotlight is on Ohio State and Indiana, both of whom suffered setbacks this week, knocking them out of the bracket. Wins on Sunday could propel them back into contention.
Ohio State and Indiana face off next weekend, and victories this Sunday would set up a high-stakes showdown. The winner of that game could secure a spot in March Madness, while the loser might need a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament to keep their hopes alive.
Here's a look at how wins or losses this weekend could impact their at-large candidacy:
- Ohio State: Current chance 35.6%; with a win 40.4%; with a loss 17.9%
- Indiana: Current chance 22.3%; with a win 37.1%; with a loss 17.6%
The SportsLine model currently gives Ohio State a 64% chance to win their season finale at home, adding an extra layer of intrigue to an already thrilling race to the tournament.